Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNY -14.5no move

Total219.5down 3 from 222.5

Season records: Nets and Knicks
BKN	This season	NY
1-5	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 119–100 · win probability NY 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

NY -14.5

no move since the open

Total

219.5

model 218.7 · Under by 1

Model edge

NY by 4

model vs market

Public on the spread

55% NY

55% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

BKN 1, NY 5 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

BKN offense vs NY defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, NY 78.7%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

NYSmall

Rest

BKN 1 day since its last game, NY 3

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, BKN 1-2 away

NYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, NY 15.2%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, NY 13.2%

Even

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 48.0% and 43.2% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, NY 24.5. Allowed: BKN 33.5, NY 25.9

Even

NY offense vs BKN defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 10 to 14.5	501	82%	49%	48%
Conference games at this spread	479	84%	51%	52%
Games with a total of 215 to 219.5	460	68%	49%	53%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	3-3
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: BKN away, as underdog; NY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs CHA	L103–110LU
Nov 7	@ ATL	L107–141LO
Nov 8	@ DAL	L114–123LO

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs CHI	W133–127LO
Nov 7	@ CLE	W130–93WO
Nov 10	vs MIL	W127–98WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

BKN 6–14 NYNY leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 14 meetings · BKN 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 20, 2025-26	NY 93 @ BKN 92	BKN +18.5	BKN W
Jan 21, 2025-26	BKN 66 @ NY 120	NY -12.5	NY W
Nov 24, 2025-26	NY 113 @ BKN 100	BKN +12.5	NY W
Nov 9, 2025-26	BKN 98 @ NY 134	NY -15.5	NY W
Apr 13, 2024-25	NY 113 @ BKN 105	BKN +5.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, Knicks 4, even 0

NetsBetterKnicks

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

NYBig

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

NYBig

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

NYBig

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNSmall

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

NYBig

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NetsBetterKnicks

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

NY4.0 #28

BKN		NY
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.05 #24
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
35.1 #15	3-point %	35.2 #13
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
22.8 #28	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
9.0 #14	Steals per game	7.3 #23
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

1 day since their last game.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

3 days since their last game.

Nets @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Knicks