Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Nets
CHA	This season	BKN
3-4	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	3-3
1-6	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 109–105 · win probability CHA 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 213.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

CHA 3, BKN 5 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

BKN offense vs CHA defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

BKNBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 50.8% and 48.0% of their shots

BKNSmall

CHA offense vs BKN defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, BKN 77.8%

BKNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, BKN 15.9%

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, BKN 32.9. Allowed: CHA 28.4, BKN 33.5

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, CHA 1-2 away

CHASmall

Rest

CHA 4 days since its last game, BKN 3

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: CHA away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs BOS	L102–113LU
Nov 9	vs CLE	L113–118WO
Nov 12	@ PHX	W127–107WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ ATL	L107–141LO
Nov 8	@ DAL	L114–123LO
Nov 11	@ NO	L113–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHA 8–10 BKNBKN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	CHA 110 @ BKN 103	BKN +1.5	CHA W
Mar 31, 2025-26	CHA 117 @ BKN 86	BKN +18.5	CHA W
Dec 1, 2025-26	CHA 103 @ BKN 116	BKN +4.5	BKN W
Oct 22, 2025-26	BKN 117 @ CHA 136	CHA -5.5	CHA W
Mar 8, 2024-25	BKN 102 @ CHA 105	CHA +5.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 2, Nets 1, even 2

HornetsBetterNets

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

Even

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHASmall

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

BKNSmall

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

Even

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

HornetsBetterNets

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

BKNSmall

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHABig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

BKN4.7 #17

CHA		BKN
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	108.2 #25
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.03 #29
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
29.6 #28	3-point %	35.1 #15
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
21.6 #30	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.0 #14
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

4 days since their last game.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

3 days since their last game.

Hornets @ Nets

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Nets

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Nets