Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Pelicans
BKN	This season	NO
1-5	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	4-2
3-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 120–110 · win probability NO 74%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

BKN 0, NO 5 · 2026-27 so far

NOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOSmall

NO offense vs BKN defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, NO 35.3. Allowed: BKN 33.5, NO 30.6

NOSmall

BKN offense vs NO defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, NO 76.4%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

Even

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 48.0% and 32.8% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, NO 17.4%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, NO 16.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ MEM	W126–115WO
Nov 16	vs PHI	L97–104WU
Nov 18	vs CHI	W123–115WO

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	vs MEM	W114–106WU
Nov 14	vs DEN	L91–104LU
Nov 16	vs GS	W113–109WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 6–4 NOBKN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BKN 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 14, 2025-26	BKN 113 @ NO 116	NO -1.5	NO W
Dec 6, 2025-26	NO 101 @ BKN 119	BKN -3.5	BKN W
Apr 8, 2024-25	NO 114 @ BKN 119	BKN -1.5	BKN W
Nov 11, 2024-25	BKN 107 @ NO 105	NO +1.5	BKN W
Mar 19, 2023-24	NO 104 @ BKN 91	BKN +6.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, Pelicans 4, even 0

NetsBetterPelicans

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

NOSmall

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

NOSmall

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

NOBig

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNSmall

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

NOBig

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NetsBetterPelicans

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

NOSmall

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

NOSmall

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

NOBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

NOSmall

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

NO4.8 #16

BKN		NO
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.10 #15
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
35.1 #15	3-point %	31.2 #25
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
22.8 #28	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
9.0 #14	Steals per game	13.7 #1
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Pelicans

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Pelicans