Smoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MEM | This season | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 2-4 |
| 6-0 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 4-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects NO 119–118 · win probability NO 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 236.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges
MEM 4, NO 2 · 2026-27 so far
MEMBigMEM offense vs NO defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
MEMBigThree-pointers
MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 42.1% and 32.8% of their shots
MEMBigShooting
Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2
NOBigFree throws
Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, NO 35.3. Allowed: MEM 31.4, NO 30.6
MEMSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, NO 76.4%
Context
Tempo
About 106 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points
NOSmallHome court
NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, MEM 4-0 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, NO 17.4%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, NO 16.3%
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
NO offense vs MEM defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNO -1.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model236.0
Model edge—
Projected score
MEM 117.5 · NO 118.5
Win probability
NO 53%
1st half
Spread
NO -0.4
Total
118.0
Projected score
MEM 58.8 · NO 59.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
MEM 13–7 NOMEM leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · NO has won the last 2 meetings · MEM 12-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025-26 | MEM 106 @ NO 114 | NO -3.5 | NO W |
| Jan 23, 2025-26 | NO 133 @ MEM 127 | MEM -4.5 | NO W |
| Nov 26, 2025-26 | MEM 133 @ NO 128 | NO +3.5 | MEM W |
| Oct 22, 2025-26 | NO 122 @ MEM 128 | MEM -3.5 | MEM W |
| Mar 9, 2024-25 | MEM 107 @ NO 104 | NO +9.5 | NO W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
UTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@
SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Grizzlies has the better starters
Position by position: Grizzlies 3, Pelicans 1, even 1
GrizzliesBetterPelicans
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
←MEMBig
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
←MEMBig
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
→NOBig
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
=Even
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
←MEMBig
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
GrizzliesBetterPelicans
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
←MEMBig
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
=Even
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
←MEMBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
←MEMBig
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
→NOSmall
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MEM121.2 #1NO119.7 #7Points per possession
MEM1.16 #4NO1.10 #15Pace (possessions)
MEM103.6 #13NO108.0 #2Shooting
Effective FG%
MEM55.9 #5NO55.1 #93-point %
MEM41.7 #1NO31.2 #253-point attempt rate
MEM42.1 #19NO32.8 #30Free throw rate
MEM25.3 #22NO35.3 #4Possessions
Turnover rate
MEM15.4 #16NO17.4 #26Offensive rebound rate
MEM30.6 #5NO24.3 #25Assists per game
MEM27.0 #13NO25.5 #21Defense
Points allowed
MEM106.0 #3NO117.8 #24Points allowed per possession
MEM1.03 #2NO1.09 #16Opponent effective FG%
MEM49.2 #3NO54.2 #21Opponent 3-point %
MEM30.0 #3NO30.5 #5Turnovers forced
MEM15.7 #15NO16.3 #10Defensive rebound rate
MEM75.0 #9NO76.4 #6Steals per game
MEM6.3 #28NO13.7 #1Blocks per game
MEM5.2 #11NO4.8 #16| MEM | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 121.2 #1 | Points per game | 119.7 #7 |
| 1.16 #4 | Points per possession | 1.10 #15 |
| 103.6 #13 | Pace (possessions) | 108.0 #2 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.9 #5 | Effective FG% | 55.1 #9 |
| 41.7 #1 | 3-point % | 31.2 #25 |
| 42.1 #19 | 3-point attempt rate | 32.8 #30 |
| 25.3 #22 | Free throw rate | 35.3 #4 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.4 #16 | Turnover rate | 17.4 #26 |
| 30.6 #5 | Offensive rebound rate | 24.3 #25 |
| 27.0 #13 | Assists per game | 25.5 #21 |
| Defense | ||
| 106.0 #3 | Points allowed | 117.8 #24 |
| 1.03 #2 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #16 |
| 49.2 #3 | Opponent effective FG% | 54.2 #21 |
| 30.0 #3 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.5 #5 |
| 15.7 #15 | Turnovers forced | 16.3 #10 |
| 75.0 #9 | Defensive rebound rate | 76.4 #6 |
| 6.3 #28 | Steals per game | 13.7 #1 |
| 5.2 #11 | Blocks per game | 4.8 #16 |
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
A week or more of rest.
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.