Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 16, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Wizards
MEM	This season	WSH
6-0	Record	3-3
6-0	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 117–115 · win probability MEM 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 6, WSH 2 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, WSH 68.0%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, WSH 34.2. Allowed: MEM 31.4, WSH 21.8

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 37.6% of their shots

MEMBig

MEM offense vs WSH defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

WSH offense vs MEM defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

MEMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, WSH 13.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MEM away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ CLE	L126–142LO
Nov 19	vs GS	W111–108WU
Nov 21	@ MIN	L110–117WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ TOR	L102–112LU
Nov 20	@ CHI	W124–120WU
Nov 22	vs ORL	L131–136WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 5–5 WSHSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · WSH has won the last 2 meetings · MEM 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 28, 2025-26	MEM 112 @ WSH 116	WSH +8.5	WSH W
Dec 20, 2025-26	WSH 130 @ MEM 122	MEM -12.5	WSH W
Dec 8, 2024-25	MEM 140 @ WSH 112	WSH +10.5	MEM W
Nov 8, 2024-25	WSH 104 @ MEM 128	MEM -7.5	MEM W
Mar 12, 2023-24	WSH 97 @ MEM 109	MEM +2.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 3, Wizards 1, even 1

GrizzliesBetterWizards

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

WSHBig

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

GrizzliesBetterWizards

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

MEMBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MEMBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

WSHBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

WSH5.3 #9

MEM		WSH
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.08 #19
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
41.7 #1	3-point %	29.3 #29
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
27.0 #13	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
6.3 #28	Steals per game	7.2 #24
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Wizards

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Wizards

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Wizards