Rocket Arena · at Cavaliers
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MEM | This season | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 4-2 |
| 6-0 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects CLE 121–113 · win probability CLE 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges
MEM 5, CLE 3 · 2026-27 so far
CLEBigFree throws
Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, CLE 28.9. Allowed: MEM 31.4, CLE 23.2
CLEBigCLE offense vs MEM defense
Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
MEMBigMEM offense vs CLE defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
MEMBigRecent form
Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6
MEMSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, CLE 73.9%
MEMSmallThree-pointers
MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 43.6% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMSmallShooting
Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points
CLESmallHome court
CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, MEM 4-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, CLE 14.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelCLE -7.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.8
Model edge—
Projected score
MEM 113.1 · CLE 120.7
Win probability
CLE 71%
1st half
Spread
CLE -4.1
Total
116.9
Projected score
MEM 56.4 · CLE 60.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
| CLElast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MEM 3–7 CLECLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 7 meetings · MEM 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025-26 | CLE 142 @ MEM 126 | MEM +13.5 | CLE W |
| Nov 15, 2025-26 | MEM 100 @ CLE 108 | CLE -10.5 | MEM W |
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | CLE 133 @ MEM 124 | MEM +1.5 | CLE W |
| Feb 23, 2024-25 | MEM 123 @ CLE 129 | CLE -5.5 | CLE W |
| Apr 10, 2023-24 | MEM 98 @ CLE 110 | CLE -19.5 | MEM W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
UTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@
SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cavaliers
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vs
MIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
29
@
ATL
ATLL 111-114
−1.5
31
@
MIL
MILW 136-111
+16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−12.5
31
@MIL
MILW 136-111
+12.5
over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Grizzlies has the better starters
Position by position: Grizzlies 2, Cavaliers 1, even 2
GrizzliesBetterCavaliers
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
←MEMBig
G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 53
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
=Even
G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 86
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
→CLEBig
G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 90
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
←MEMBig
C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 30
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
=Even
C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 100
GrizzliesBetterCavaliers
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
←MEMSmall
CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
→CLEBig
CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
→CLEBig
Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
←MEMBig
Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
→CLEBig
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
CavaliersGuards
J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min
Forwards
M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min
Centers
E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew
Out
P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MEM121.2 #1CLE121.0 #2Points per possession
MEM1.16 #4CLE1.14 #7Pace (possessions)
MEM103.6 #13CLE106.2 #3Shooting
Effective FG%
MEM55.9 #5CLE55.3 #73-point %
MEM41.7 #1CLE37.0 #83-point attempt rate
MEM42.1 #19CLE43.6 #12Free throw rate
MEM25.3 #22CLE28.9 #13Possessions
Turnover rate
MEM15.4 #16CLE14.2 #6Offensive rebound rate
MEM30.6 #5CLE26.7 #20Assists per game
MEM27.0 #13CLE28.7 #4Defense
Points allowed
MEM106.0 #3CLE116.0 #20Points allowed per possession
MEM1.03 #2CLE1.09 #14Opponent effective FG%
MEM49.2 #3CLE52.5 #12Opponent 3-point %
MEM30.0 #3CLE33.7 #11Turnovers forced
MEM15.7 #15CLE14.1 #25Defensive rebound rate
MEM75.0 #9CLE73.9 #11Steals per game
MEM6.3 #28CLE7.8 #22Blocks per game
MEM5.2 #11CLE6.3 #6| MEM | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 121.2 #1 | Points per game | 121.0 #2 |
| 1.16 #4 | Points per possession | 1.14 #7 |
| 103.6 #13 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #3 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.9 #5 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #7 |
| 41.7 #1 | 3-point % | 37.0 #8 |
| 42.1 #19 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.6 #12 |
| 25.3 #22 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #13 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.4 #16 | Turnover rate | 14.2 #6 |
| 30.6 #5 | Offensive rebound rate | 26.7 #20 |
| 27.0 #13 | Assists per game | 28.7 #4 |
| Defense | ||
| 106.0 #3 | Points allowed | 116.0 #20 |
| 1.03 #2 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #14 |
| 49.2 #3 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.5 #12 |
| 30.0 #3 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.7 #11 |
| 15.7 #15 | Turnovers forced | 14.1 #25 |
| 75.0 #9 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.9 #11 |
| 6.3 #28 | Steals per game | 7.8 #22 |
| 5.2 #11 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #6 |
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
A week or more of rest.
Cavaliers
4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Bucks136–111
- L@ Hawks111–114
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
A week or more of rest.