Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Hornets
MEM	This season	CHA
6-0	Record	3-4
6-0	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 110–110 · win probability CHA 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 5, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 42.1% and 50.8% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

MEMBig

CHA offense vs MEM defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, CHA 14.5%

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHASmall

MEM offense vs CHA defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, CHA 76.6%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, CHA 18.9. Allowed: MEM 31.4, CHA 28.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MEM away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs LAC	L120–123WO
Nov 27	@ MIN	L110–117WU
Nov 29	vs LAL	L114–120LU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs CHI	W131–99WU
Nov 28	vs BKN	W110–103WU
Nov 30	vs WSH	L79–95LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 5–5 CHASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · MEM 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	MEM 101 @ CHA 124	CHA -18.5	CHA W
Jan 28, 2025-26	CHA 112 @ MEM 97	MEM +2.5	CHA W
Apr 8, 2024-25	MEM 124 @ CHA 100	CHA +14.5	MEM W
Jan 22, 2024-25	CHA 120 @ MEM 132	MEM -11.5	MEM W
Mar 13, 2023-24	CHA 110 @ MEM 98	MEM +2.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 4, Hornets 1, even 0

GrizzliesBetterHornets

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMSmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

CHABig

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

MEMSmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

GrizzliesBetterHornets

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

CHASmall

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

MEMBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

CHA5.0 #15

MEM		CHA
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.16 #4	Points per possession	0.99 #30
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
41.7 #1	3-point %	29.6 #28
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
27.0 #13	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
6.3 #28	Steals per game	7.1 #25
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Hornets

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Hornets

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Hornets