Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 30, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Hornets
WSH	This season	CHA
3-3	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 112–107 · win probability CHA 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

WSH 5, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, CHA 76.6%

CHABig

WSH offense vs CHA defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, CHA 18.9. Allowed: WSH 21.8, CHA 28.4

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

WSHBig

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 37.6% and 50.8% of their shots

WSHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, CHA 14.5%

WSHSmall

CHA offense vs WSH defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: WSH away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	@ MIA	L117–140LO
Dec 12	vs CHA	W95–79WU
Dec 14	@ BOS	L100–111WU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ BOS	L102–113LU
Dec 12	@ WSH	L79–95LU
Dec 14	vs TOR	L96–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

WSH 11–11 CHASeries tied · 22 games since 2021-22 · WSH 12-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	CHA 79 @ WSH 95	WSH +1.5	WSH W
Oct 26, 2026-27	WSH 103 @ CHA 110	CHA -2.5	CHA W
Feb 22, 2025-26	CHA 129 @ WSH 112	WSH +10.5	CHA W
Jan 24, 2025-26	WSH 115 @ CHA 119	CHA -11.5	WSH W
Dec 23, 2025-26	WSH 109 @ CHA 126	CHA -6.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Hornets 2, even 2

WizardsBetterHornets

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

Even

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHSmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

CHASmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

WizardsBetterHornets

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

WSHSmall

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

CHABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

CHA5.0 #15

WSH		CHA
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.08 #19	Points per possession	0.99 #30
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
29.3 #29	3-point %	29.6 #28
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
24.5 #24	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
7.2 #24	Steals per game	7.1 #25
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Hornets

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Hornets

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Hornets