Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Wizards
CHA	This season	WSH
3-4	Record	3-3
3-4	ATS	3-3
1-6	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 110–110 · win probability CHA 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

CHA 2, WSH 6 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, WSH 68.0%

CHABig

WSH offense vs CHA defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, WSH 34.2. Allowed: CHA 28.4, WSH 21.8

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

WSHBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 50.8% and 37.6% of their shots

WSHSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, WSH 13.3%

WSHSmall

CHA offense vs WSH defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHA away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	vs TOR	L96–97WU
Dec 16	vs LAC	L109–117LO
Dec 18	vs OKC	W124–97WU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	@ BOS	L100–111WU
Dec 16	@ BOS	L100–111WU
Dec 18	vs NY	L113–145LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

CHA 11–11 WSHSeries tied · 22 games since 2021-22 · CHA 10-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	CHA 79 @ WSH 95	WSH +1.5	WSH W
Oct 26, 2026-27	WSH 103 @ CHA 110	CHA -2.5	CHA W
Feb 22, 2025-26	CHA 129 @ WSH 112	WSH +10.5	CHA W
Jan 24, 2025-26	WSH 115 @ CHA 119	CHA -11.5	WSH W
Dec 23, 2025-26	WSH 109 @ CHA 126	CHA -6.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 2, Wizards 1, even 2

HornetsBetterWizards

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

Even

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

WSHSmall

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

CHASmall

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

HornetsBetterWizards

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

WSHSmall

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHABig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

WSH5.3 #9

CHA		WSH
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	110.5 #20
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.08 #19
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
29.6 #28	3-point %	29.3 #29
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
21.6 #30	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
7.1 #25	Steals per game	7.2 #24
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Wizards

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Wizards

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Wizards