Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 18, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Hornets
OKC	This season	CHA
4-2	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 108–105 · win probability OKC 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 212.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

OKC 5, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

CHA offense vs OKC defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, CHA 14.5%

CHABig

OKC offense vs CHA defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, CHA 76.6%

OKCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, CHA 18.9. Allowed: OKC 23.4, CHA 28.4

OKCSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 35.8% and 50.8% of their shots

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ ATL	W140–129LO
Dec 22	vs DET	W114–110LO
Dec 23	@ NO	W104–95LU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 19	vs POR	W103–101LU
Dec 21	vs PHI	L104–109LO
Dec 23	@ ORL	L90–121LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 5–5 CHASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 5, 2025-26	CHA 124 @ OKC 97	OKC -15.5	CHA W
Nov 15, 2025-26	OKC 109 @ CHA 96	CHA +17.5	CHA W
Mar 21, 2024-25	CHA 106 @ OKC 141	OKC -20.5	OKC W
Dec 28, 2024-25	OKC 106 @ CHA 94	CHA +13.5	CHA W
Apr 7, 2023-24	OKC 121 @ CHA 118	CHA +7.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 3, Hornets 2, even 0

ThunderBetterHornets

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

CHABig

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

CHASmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

ThunderBetterHornets

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

CHA5.0 #15

OKC		CHA
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.05 #23	Points per possession	0.99 #30
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
30.9 #26	3-point %	29.6 #28
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
21.7 #29	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
8.3 #20	Steals per game	7.1 #25
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Hornets

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Hornets

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Hornets