LA Clippers at Miami Heat: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 18, 7:00 PM ETKaseya Center · at Heat

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Heat
LAC	This season	MIA
1-5	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 118–115 · win probability MIA 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

LAC 1, MIA 3 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs LAC defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), MIA 106.2 (5th). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%. Threes are 42.3% and 41.7% of their shots

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, MIA 14.1%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, MIA 15.4%

MIASmall

Home court

MIA at home. This season: MIA 1-3 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8

Even

LAC offense vs MIA defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, MIA the 11th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, MIA 24.5%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, MIA 72.3%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, MIA 27.3. Allowed: LAC 24.7, MIA 23.2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, MIA 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, MIA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: LAC away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs IND	W114–113LU
Dec 21	vs DEN	W115–114WO
Dec 23	vs GS	L112–124LO

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs SAC	W130–117WO
Dec 21	vs CHI	W134–91WU
Dec 23	vs CHI	W134–91WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAC 5–5 MIASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings · LAC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 1, 2025-26	LAC 123 @ MIA 140	MIA -6.5	MIA W
Nov 3, 2025-26	MIA 120 @ LAC 119	LAC -7.5	MIA W
Mar 12, 2024-25	LAC 119 @ MIA 104	MIA -1.5	LAC W
Jan 13, 2024-25	MIA 98 @ LAC 109	LAC -7.5	LAC W
Feb 4, 2023-24	LAC 103 @ MIA 95	MIA +4.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 1, Heat 3, even 1

ClippersBetterHeat

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

MIASmall

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

Even

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

MIABig

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACSmall

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

MIABig

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

ClippersBetterHeat

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Even

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

MIABig

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

MIABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterMIA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

MIA118.3 #9

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

MIA1.11 #14

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

MIA106.2 #5

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

MIA54.6 #12

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

MIA34.1 #19

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

MIA41.7 #20

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

MIA27.3 #19

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

MIA14.1 #5

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

MIA24.5 #24

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

MIA28.8 #3

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

MIA121.5 #26

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

MIA1.15 #26

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

MIA56.8 #27

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

MIA40.6 #29

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

MIA15.4 #18

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

MIA72.3 #17

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

MIA8.3 #19

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

MIA5.0 #13

LAC		MIA
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	118.3 #9
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.11 #14
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #5
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	54.6 #12
38.6 #5	3-point %	34.1 #19
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #20
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	27.3 #19
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	14.1 #5
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	24.5 #24
24.3 #26	Assists per game	28.8 #3
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	121.5 #26
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #26
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	56.8 #27
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	40.6 #29
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	15.4 #18
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #17
11.3 #3	Steals per game	8.3 #19
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	5.0 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Heat

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Heat

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Heat