Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Clippers
GS	This season	LAC
4-3	Record	1-5
5-2	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 114–114 · win probability LAC 50%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 6, LAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

LAC offense vs GS defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, LAC 70.9%

GSSmall

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 47.1% and 42.3% of their shots

GSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: GS 17.6%, LAC 17.0%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, GS 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

GS offense vs LAC defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, LAC 28.0. Allowed: GS 27.3, LAC 24.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: GS away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 25	vs DEN	W134–114WO
Dec 27	vs MIN	W119–114WO
Dec 28	@ PHX	L122–131WO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	vs MEM	W123–120LO
Dec 27	vs PHI	L113–128LO
Dec 29	@ IND	W114–113LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

GS 9–13 LACLAC leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · GS has won the last 2 meetings · GS 9-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 1, 2026-27	LAC 112 @ GS 124	GS -1.5	GS W
Apr 15, 2025-26	GS 126 @ LAC 121	LAC -5.5	GS W
Apr 12, 2025-26	GS 110 @ LAC 115	LAC -3.5	LAC W
Mar 2, 2025-26	LAC 114 @ GS 101	GS +1.5	LAC W
Jan 5, 2025-26	GS 102 @ LAC 103	LAC +3.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 3, Clippers 1, even 1

WarriorsBetterClippers

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

GSBig

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

GSBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

LACSmall

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

GSBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

WarriorsBetterClippers

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Even

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

GSBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

GSBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

GSBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSSmall

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

LAC4.2 #22

GS		LAC
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.04 #27
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
40.0 #2	3-point %	38.6 #5
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
27.4 #10	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
9.1 #11	Steals per game	11.3 #3
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Clippers

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Clippers

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Clippers