Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 28, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Warriors and Suns
GS	This season	PHX
4-3	Record	1-3
5-2	ATS	0-4
4-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 116–115 · win probability GS 54%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

GS 7, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

Recent form

Last 4: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

GSBig

Three-pointers

GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 47.1% and 45.1% of their shots

GSBig

GS offense vs PHX defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: GS 28.8, PHX 22.8. Allowed: GS 27.3, PHX 31.1

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, PHX 65.1%

GSSmall

PHX offense vs GS defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, GS 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: GS 17.6%, PHX 17.1%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: GS away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 30	vs HOU	L116–117WO
Jan 2	vs BKN	W109–106LU
Jan 6	vs NY	L107–110WU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 30	vs PHI	L103–109LU
Dec 31	vs NY	W106–99WU
Jan 2	vs SAC	W114–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

GS 9–13 PHXPHX leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 2 meetings · GS 9-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	GS 122 @ PHX 131	PHX -9.5	GS W
Apr 17, 2025-26	GS 96 @ PHX 111	PHX -2.5	PHX W
Feb 5, 2025-26	GS 101 @ PHX 97	PHX -5.5	GS W
Dec 20, 2025-26	PHX 116 @ GS 119	GS -6.5	PHX W
Dec 18, 2025-26	GS 98 @ PHX 99	PHX +1.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 3, Suns 1, even 1

WarriorsBetterSuns

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

PHXSmall

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

GSBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

Even

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

GSSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

GSBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

WarriorsBetterSuns

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

GSBig

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

GSSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

GSBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestGS betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GS117.7 #11

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

GS1.17 #3

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

GS101.4 #25

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

GS55.3 #8

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

GS40.0 #2

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

GS47.1 #5

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

GS28.8 #15

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

GS16.7 #22

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

GS33.2 #1

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

GS27.4 #10

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

GS114.9 #16

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

GS1.13 #21

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

GS56.0 #25

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

GS35.2 #16

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

GS17.6 #5

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

GS70.4 #23

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

GS9.1 #11

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

GS4.1 #24

PHX5.3 #10

GS		PHX
Scoring
117.7 #11	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.17 #3	Points per possession	1.12 #12
101.4 #25	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
55.3 #8	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
40.0 #2	3-point %	35.0 #16
47.1 #5	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
28.8 #15	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
16.7 #22	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
33.2 #1	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
27.4 #10	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
114.9 #16	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.13 #21	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
56.0 #25	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
35.2 #16	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
17.6 #5	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
70.4 #23	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
9.1 #11	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.1 #24	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Warriors @ Suns

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Warriors

Suns

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Warriors

Suns