1. Home
  2. NBA
  3. Wed, Jan 6
  4. NY @ GS
NBA · Wed, Jan 6

Knicks @ Warriors

Chase Center · at Warriors
#10NYKnicks
@
#13GSWarriors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NYThis seasonGS
3-4Record5-3
1-6ATS6-2
1-6O/U5-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 112–111 · win probability NY 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 222.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 219-233 in 2025-26. Model numbers

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

NY 2, GS 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
NY has played the 19th-hardest schedule, GS the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBig
Recent form
Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +3.8; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +11.4
NYBig
GS offense vs NY defense
Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
GSSmall
NY offense vs GS defense
Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
GSSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NY 15.5%, GS 16.2%. Forced: NY 13.7%, GS 17.1%
NYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, GS 32.9%. Defensive: NY 77.8%, GS 71.3%
GSSmall
Home court
GS at home. This season: GS 3-1 at home, NY 1-2 away
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: NY plays 99.8 a game (29th fastest), GS 101.5 (21st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NY 26.3, GS 30.6. Allowed: NY 27.1, GS 28.3
Even
Three-pointers
NY hits 35.7% and allows 35.3%; GS hits 38.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 45.1% and 47.5% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NY 49.9 and allows 52.3; GS 54.7 and allows 55.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNY -0.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model222.9
Model edge—
Projected score
NY 111.9 · GS 111.1
Win probability
NY 52%
1st half
Spread
NY -0.6
Total
111.8
Projected score
NY 56.2 · GS 55.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model numbers › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 2, Warriors 0, even 3
KnicksBetterWarriors
G J. Brunson24.6 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.3 ast Score 87
NYSmall
G B. Podziemski17 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast Score 72
G J. Hart8.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.9 ast Score 91
Even
G S. Curry30 pts · 4.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 98
G M. Bridges6.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 77
Even
F Y. Lendeborg21.5 pts · 7 reb · 3.9 ast Score 78
F O. Anunoby16.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 75
NYSmall
F D. Green3.2 pts · 5 reb · 6.3 ast Score 56
C K. Towns20.3 pts · 13.9 reb · 3.4 ast Score 80
Even
F G. Niang7.3 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 77
KnicksBetterWarriors
NY offense22nd of 30 · -2.4
GSSmall
GS defense13th of 30 · +0.2
NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.8
NYSmall
GS offense12th of 30 · +1.8
Backcourt+33.9 · 3 players
NYBig
Backcourt+25.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+18.1 · 2 players
NYBig
Frontcourt+14.9 · 3 players
Bench+4.5 · 5 players
NYBig
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNY betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Knicks
Guards
J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart32 minM. Bridges26 minL. Shamet25 minM. McBride18 minT. Kolek12 min
Forwards
O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew
Centers
K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minS. Curry29 minD. Melton23 minW. Richard18 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton14 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minD. Green27 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike11 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
C. Bassey12 min
Out
A. HorfordDay-To-DayB. WilliamsDay-To-DayG. SantosDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
NYGS
Scoring
106.4Points per game117.5
1.06Points per possession1.16
99.8Pace (possessions)101.5
Shooting
49.9Effective FG%54.7
35.73-point %38.9
45.13-point attempt rate47.5
26.3Free throw rate30.6
Possessions
15.5Turnover rate16.2
30.3Offensive rebound rate32.9
25.9Assists per game26.9
Defense
105.1Points allowed114.6
1.06Points allowed per possession1.12
52.3Opponent effective FG%55.7
35.3Opponent 3-point %35.3
13.7Turnovers forced17.1
77.8Defensive rebound rate71.3
7.4Steals per game8.9
4.1Blocks per game3.9
NYGS
Scoring
106.4 #27Points per game117.5 #11
1.06 #22Points per possession1.16 #5
99.8 #29Pace (possessions)101.5 #21
Shooting
49.9 #26Effective FG%54.7 #11
35.7 #103-point %38.9 #4
45.1 #123-point attempt rate47.5 #4
26.3 #20Free throw rate30.6 #11
Possessions
15.5 #16Turnover rate16.2 #23
30.3 #7Offensive rebound rate32.9 #1
25.9 #18Assists per game26.9 #11
Defense
105.1 #3Points allowed114.6 #17
1.06 #9Points allowed per possession1.12 #21
52.3 #11Opponent effective FG%55.7 #25
35.3 #16Opponent 3-point %35.3 #17
13.7 #27Turnovers forced17.1 #6
77.8 #1Defensive rebound rate71.3 #20
7.4 #25Steals per game8.9 #12
4.1 #25Blocks per game3.9 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Nets103–90
  • L@ 76ers93–98
  • W@ Bulls133–127
  • Wvs Pistons111–97
  • Lvs Magic102–111

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

5-3 overall · 5-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Suns116–113
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114

A week or more of rest.