South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Kansas State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM ETBramlage Coliseum · at Kansas St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: S Dakota St and Kansas St
SDST	This season	KSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KSU 83–70 · win probability KSU 88%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KSU has more of the edges

SDST 2, KSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

SDST has played the 271st-hardest schedule, KSU the 43rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

SDSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SDST 30.3%, KSU 29.2%. Defensive: SDST 74.9%, KSU 66.0%

KSUBig

KSU offense vs SDST defense

Offense 74th of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: SDST plays 68.2 a game (220th fastest), KSU 73.8 (11th). Faster games mean more points

KSUSmall

SDST offense vs KSU defense

Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 97th, on the model’s ratings

SDSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SDST 51%, KSU 7%. Transfers in: SDST 3, KSU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

KSUSmall

Three-pointers

SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%; KSU hits 36.4% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 38.8% and 40.9% of their shots

KSUSmall

Home court

KSU at home. This season: KSU 0-0 at home, SDST 0-0 away

KSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SDST 16.2%, KSU 17.4%. Forced: SDST 14.5%, KSU 17.1%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SDST 29.7, KSU 26.9. Allowed: SDST 34.5, KSU 35.2

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8; KSU 53.3 and allows 52.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	KSU -13.6	—
Total	—	152.8	—
Projected score	—	SDST 69.6 · KSU 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KSU -8.0	—
1H total	71.5	—
1H projected score	SDST 31.7 · KSU 39.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDST LLWLL	12-17	41%	7-7	—
KSU LLWLL	12-20	38%	5-13	—

Venue/role: SDST away; KSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDST UOUUU	14-15	48%	11-18
KSU UUUOO	16-16	50%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDST	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
KSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

S Dakota St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs VAL	W61–50WU
Nov 14	vs UNCO	L69–78LU
Nov 20	@ IDST	No recent meeting

Kansas St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs CSUN	No recent meeting
Nov 10	vs CREI	W83–76WU
Nov 16	vs MONT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SDST 0–1 KSUKSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SDST 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2023-24	SDST 68 @ KSU 91	KSU -9.5	KSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Dakota St

29 games played

Straight up

11-18

38% wins

Against the spread

12-17

41% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1838%

W L L W L L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1741%

W W W W L L W L L L L W W L L L W W L W L L L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U O O U U U O U O O O O O O U O U O O U U U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 12	@ORE	L 69-83	+16.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsGAST	W 105-58	-12.5	W +34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsUVU	L 52-75	+1.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsUCI	L 52-64	+2.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 116
Dec 3	@NAU	W 75-62	-2.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsIDHO	L 81-84	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 165
Dec 9	@BALL	W 68-64	-5.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 15	vsWYO	L 72-87	+3.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 19	@MILW	L 87-88	-1.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 29	@ARIZ	L 71-99	+31.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 170
Jan 1	vsOMA	W 84-69	-9.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 3	@UND	L 87-90	-7.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 177
Jan 8	vsDEN	W 87-79	-8.5	L −0.5	162.5	O 166
Jan 14	@NDSU	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsKC	W 90-62	-13.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 22	@STMN	L 69-74	+6.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 28	@OMA	L 71-80	-1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsORU	W 95-72	-13.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 167
Feb 4	vsSTMN	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsSDAK	L 67-68	-11.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 12	@DEN	L 61-79	-2.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 140
Feb 14	@ORU	W 87-69	-5.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsNDSU	L 66-74	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsUND	W 91-83	-9.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 174
Feb 26	@KC	W 73-59	-12.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	@SDAK	L 70-75	-3.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 5	vsSTMN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

ORE

L 69-83

+2.5

GAST

W 105-58

+34.5

UVU

L 52-75

−21.5

UCI

L 52-64

−9.5

NAU

W 75-62

+10.5

IDHO

L 81-84

−8.5

BALL

W 68-64

−1.5

WYO

L 72-87

−11.5

MILW

L 87-88

−2.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+3.5

OMA

W 84-69

+5.5

UND

L 87-90

−10.5

DEN

W 87-79

−0.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−5.5

W 90-62

+14.5

STMN

L 69-74

+1.5

OMA

L 71-80

−10.5

ORU

W 95-72

+9.5

STMN

L 62-77

−16.5

SDAK

L 67-68

−12.5

DEN

L 61-79

−20.5

ORU

W 87-69

+12.5

NDSU

L 66-74

−6.5

UND

W 91-83

−1.5

W 73-59

+1.5

SDAK

L 70-75

−8.5

STMN

L 67-80

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

ORE

L 69-83

+6.5

GAST

W 105-58

+19.5

UVU

L 52-75

−24.5

UCI

L 52-64

−28.5

NAU

W 75-62

−11.5

IDHO

L 81-84

+17.5

BALL

W 68-64

−10.5

WYO

L 72-87

+9.5

MILW

L 87-88

+23.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+10.5

OMA

W 84-69

+0.5

UND

L 87-90

+24.5

DEN

W 87-79

+3.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−10.5

W 90-62

+0.5

STMN

L 69-74

−12.5

OMA

L 71-80

+0.5

ORU

W 95-72

+16.5

STMN

L 62-77

−18.5

SDAK

L 67-68

−24.5

DEN

L 61-79

−20.5

ORU

W 87-69

+8.5

NDSU

L 66-74

−6.5

UND

W 91-83

+22.5

W 73-59

−20.5

SDAK

L 70-75

−6.5

STMN

L 67-80

−3.5

over 14under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas St

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L L L L W W W W L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

W L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L W L L W L W L W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1650%

O O O O O O U U U U U O O U O O U U U U U U O O U O O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 17	vsTLSA	W 84-83	-12.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 20	vsMSST	W 98-77	+2.5	W +23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsNEB	L 85-86	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	@IU	L 69-86	+10.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 155
Dec 1	vsBGSU	L 66-82	-12.5	L −28.5	159.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsHALL	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 8	vsMVSU	W 108-49	-38.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 13	@CREI	W 83-76	+4.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 20	vsSDAK	W 106-76	-21.5	W +8.5	176.5	O 182
Dec 28	vsULM	W 94-85	-32.5	L −23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 3	vsBYU	L 73-83	+7.5	L −2.5	174.5	U 156
Jan 7	@ARIZ	L 76-101	+17.5	L −7.5	171.5	O 177
Jan 10	@ASU	L 84-87	+1.5	L −1.5	169.5	O 171
Jan 14	vsUCF	L 73-82	-2.5	L −11.5	170.5	U 155
Jan 17	@OKST	L 83-84	+2.5	W +1.5	175.5	U 167
Jan 20	vsUTAH	W 81-78	-10.5	L −7.5	168.5	U 159
Jan 24	vsKU	L 62-86	+4.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 148
Jan 27	@WVU	L 54-59	+7.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 113
Feb 1	vsISU	L 61-95	+12.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 156
Feb 7	@TCU	L 82-84	+9.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 166
Feb 11	vsCIN	L 62-91	+2.5	L −26.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 14	@HOU	L 64-78	+22.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 17	vsBAY	W 90-74	+3.5	W +19.5	159.5	O 164
Feb 21	@TTU	L 72-100	+12.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 172
Feb 25	@COLO	L 70-79	+5.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 149
Feb 28	vsTCU	L 68-77	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsWVU	W 65-63	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 7	@KU	L 85-104	+17.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 189
Mar 10	vsBYU	L 91-105	+11.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 196

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

TLSA

W 84-83

−11.5

MSST

W 98-77

+23.5

NEB

L 85-86

+0.5

L 69-86

−6.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−28.5

HALL

L 67-78

−13.5

MVSU

W 108-49

+20.5

CREI

W 83-76

+11.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+8.5

ULM

W 94-85

−23.5

BYU

L 73-83

−2.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

−7.5

ASU

L 84-87

−1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−11.5

OKST

L 83-84

+1.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−7.5

L 62-86

−19.5

WVU

L 54-59

+2.5

ISU

L 61-95

−21.5

TCU

L 82-84

+7.5

CIN

L 62-91

−26.5

HOU

L 64-78

+8.5

BAY

W 90-74

+19.5

TTU

L 72-100

−15.5

COLO

L 70-79

−3.5

TCU

L 68-77

−5.5

WVU

W 65-63

+5.5

L 85-104

−1.5

BYU

L 91-105

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

TLSA

W 84-83

+6.5

MSST

W 98-77

+10.5

NEB

L 85-86

+2.5

L 69-86

−9.5

BGSU

L 66-82

−11.5

HALL

L 67-78

−3.5

MVSU

W 108-49

−3.5

CREI

W 83-76

−0.5

SDAK

W 106-76

+5.5

ULM

W 94-85

+9.5

BYU

L 73-83

−18.5

ARIZ

L 76-101

+5.5

ASU

L 84-87

+1.5

UCF

L 73-82

−15.5

OKST

L 83-84

−8.5

UTAH

W 81-78

−9.5

L 62-86

−10.5

WVU

L 54-59

−33.5

ISU

L 61-95

−0.5

TCU

L 82-84

+10.5

CIN

L 62-91

+5.5

HOU

L 64-78

−2.5

BAY

W 90-74

+4.5

TTU

L 72-100

+13.5

COLO

L 70-79

−14.5

TCU

L 68-77

−14.5

WVU

W 65-63

−15.5

L 85-104

+31.5

BYU

L 91-105

+27.5

over 16under 16avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas St has the better starters

Position by position: S Dakota St 0, Kansas St 2, even 3

S Dakota StBetterKansas St

G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54

KSUSmall

G B. Rechsteiner TR12 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71

G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49

Even

G J. Schutt TR7.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 39

G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12

KSUBig

G M. Wheeler TR8.4 pts · 1.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 50

F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38

Even

F D. Lindsay TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 51

C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29

Even

F I. Abraham TR4.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 31

S Dakota StBetterKansas St

SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7

KSUSmall

KSU defense97th of 366 · -0.7

SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7

KSUBig

KSU offense74th of 366 · +1.4

Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players

KSUBig

Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

KSUSmall

Bench-0.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSDST betterKSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

S Dakota St

Guards

J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min

Forwards

M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew

Centers

A. Squires14 min

Kansas St

Guards

B. Rechsteiner28 min · TRJ. Schutt25 min · TRM. Wheeler22 min · TRA. Kostic14 minJ. AlexanderNew

Forwards

D. Lindsay21 min · TRI. Abraham20 min · TRT. Malovec15 min · TRP. N'Diaye9 min · TRB. Vice6 min · TRM. GilhoolNew

Centers

J. Rock13 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SDST74.4 #182

KSU79.6 #74

Points per possession

SDST1.09 #150

KSU1.08 #191

Pace (possessions)

SDST68.2 #220

KSU73.8 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

SDST52.0 #143

KSU53.3 #88

3-point %

SDST34.0 #174

KSU36.4 #43

3-point attempt rate

SDST38.8 #193

KSU40.9 #148

Free throw rate

SDST29.7 #317

KSU26.9 #351

Possessions

Turnover rate

SDST16.2 #150

KSU17.4 #233

Offensive rebound rate

SDST30.3 #186

KSU29.2 #229

Assists per game

SDST13.8 #160

KSU16.8 #29

Defense

Points allowed

SDST74.5 #177

KSU81.8 #339

Points allowed per possession

SDST1.09 #198

KSU1.11 #244

Opponent effective FG%

SDST51.8 #204

KSU52.5 #239

Opponent 3-point %

SDST34.1 #191

KSU33.7 #166

Turnovers forced

SDST14.5 #323

KSU17.1 #145

Defensive rebound rate

SDST74.9 #9

KSU66.0 #317

Steals per game

SDST5.5 #291

KSU7.0 #121

Blocks per game

SDST2.2 #336

KSU3.5 #137

SDST		KSU
Scoring
74.4 #182	Points per game	79.6 #74
1.09 #150	Points per possession	1.08 #191
68.2 #220	Pace (possessions)	73.8 #11
Shooting
52.0 #143	Effective FG%	53.3 #88
34.0 #174	3-point %	36.4 #43
38.8 #193	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #148
29.7 #317	Free throw rate	26.9 #351
Possessions
16.2 #150	Turnover rate	17.4 #233
30.3 #186	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #229
13.8 #160	Assists per game	16.8 #29
Defense
74.5 #177	Points allowed	81.8 #339
1.09 #198	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #244
51.8 #204	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #239
34.1 #191	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #166
14.5 #323	Turnovers forced	17.1 #145
74.9 #9	Defensive rebound rate	66.0 #317
5.5 #291	Steals per game	7.0 #121
2.2 #336	Blocks per game	3.5 #137

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St Thomas67–80
L@ South Dakota70–75
W@ Kansas City73–59
Wvs North Dakota91–83
Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.

Kansas St

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-16 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs BYU91–105
L@ Kansas85–104
Wvs West Virginia65–63
Lvs TCU68–77
L@ Colorado70–79

A week or more of rest.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Kansas State Wildcats

What could decide it: KSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

S Dakota St

Kansas St

Kansas St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

S Dakota St

Kansas St