1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. SDST @ IDST
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Idaho State Bengals

Reed Gym · at Idaho St
#201SDSTS Dakota St
@
#344IDSTIdaho St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDSTThis seasonIDST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDST 77–72 · win probability SDST 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDST has more of the edges

SDST 4, IDST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDSTBig
SDST offense vs IDST defense
Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 349th, on the model’s ratings
SDSTSmall
IDST offense vs SDST defense
Offense 324th of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings
SDSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDST 51%, IDST 6%. Transfers in: SDST 3, IDST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SDSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8; IDST 51.9 and allows 54.5
IDSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDST 29.7, IDST 38.0. Allowed: SDST 34.5, IDST 38.0
IDSTSmall
Home court
IDST at home. This season: IDST 0-0 at home, SDST 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDST 16.2%, IDST 17.1%. Forced: SDST 14.5%, IDST 14.6%
Context
Schedule so far
SDST has played the 271st-hardest schedule, IDST the 295th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%; IDST hits 33.6% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 38.8% and 41.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: SDST plays 68.2 a game (220th fastest), IDST 67.3 (266th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDST 30.3%, IDST 32.8%. Defensive: SDST 74.9%, IDST 72.1%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDST -4.8—
Total—149.3—
Projected score—SDST 77 · IDST 72.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDST -3.0—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreSDST 36.4 · IDST 33.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: S Dakota St 0, Idaho St 0, even 5
S Dakota StBetterIdaho St
G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54
No call
G L. Birley0.5 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49
No call
G E. Harel TR0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12
No call
G A. Goffe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38
No call
G J. Dorsey NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29
No call
F Q. Patterson0.9 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
S Dakota StBetterIdaho St
SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7
SDSTBig
IDST defense349th of 366 · -9.6
SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7
SDSTSmall
IDST offense324th of 366 · -10.6
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
IDSTBig
Backcourt-0.3 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSDST betterIDST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
S Dakota St
Guards
J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min
Forwards
M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew
Centers
A. Squires14 min
Idaho St
Guards
L. Birley4 minE. Harel1 min · TRA. GoffeNewJ. DorseyNewM. MorrisNewT. VirgilNew
Forwards
Q. Patterson7 minM. JohnsonNewI. PalmerNewK. DeMuynckNewM. JohnsonNewB. LowenbachNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDSTIDST
Scoring
74.4 #182Points per game73.6 #213
1.09 #150Points per possession1.10 #135
68.2 #220Pace (possessions)67.3 #266
Shooting
52.0 #143Effective FG%51.9 #151
34.0 #1743-point %33.6 #192
38.8 #1933-point attempt rate41.9 #137
29.7 #317Free throw rate38.0 #104
Possessions
16.2 #150Turnover rate17.1 #213
30.3 #186Offensive rebound rate32.8 #94
13.8 #160Assists per game11.8 #302
Defense
74.5 #177Points allowed77.6 #255
1.09 #198Points allowed per possession1.14 #314
51.8 #204Opponent effective FG%54.5 #315
34.1 #191Opponent 3-point %34.5 #220
14.5 #323Turnovers forced14.6 #316
74.9 #9Defensive rebound rate72.1 #63
5.5 #291Steals per game5.2 #322
2.2 #336Blocks per game4.0 #78
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St Thomas67–80
  • L@ South Dakota70–75
  • W@ Kansas City73–59
  • Wvs North Dakota91–83
  • Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.

Idaho St

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland St78–85
  • Wvs N Arizona73–65
  • L@ Sacramento St65–83
  • Lvs Weber St73–83
  • Wvs Montana St91–76

A week or more of rest.