South Alabama Jaguars vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 6:00 PM ETConvocation Center (LA) · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: South Alabama and S Dakota St
USA	This season	SDST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDST 75–73 · win probability SDST 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USA has more of the edges

USA 3, SDST 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

USABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: USA 38.5, SDST 29.7. Allowed: USA 25.4, SDST 34.5

USABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USA 13.1%, SDST 16.2%. Forced: USA 18.0%, SDST 14.5%

SDSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USA 25.0%, SDST 30.3%. Defensive: USA 68.6%, SDST 74.9%

USASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: USA 52.6 and allows 50.1; SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8

SDSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USA 21%, SDST 51%. Transfers in: USA 0, SDST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

USA has played the 223rd-hardest schedule, SDST the 271st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%; SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 36.5% and 38.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: USA plays 67.1 a game (277th fastest), SDST 68.2 (220th). Faster games mean more points

Even

SDST offense vs USA defense

Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings

Even

USA offense vs SDST defense

Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SDST -1.6	—
Total	—	147.6	—
Projected score	—	USA 73 · SDST 74.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDST -0.8	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	USA 34.1 · SDST 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USA WWLLW	17-14	55%	1-3	—
SDST LLWLL	12-17	41%	1-4	—

Venue/role: USA neutral site; SDST neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UUUOU	16-15	52%	19-12
SDST UOUUU	14-15	48%	11-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SDST	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

South Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs UTSA	W82–58WU

S Dakota St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs FRES	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ ACU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs MILW	L87–88LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Alabama

31 games played

Straight up

19-12

61% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1261%

W W W W W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W W L W W W L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1455%

W L L L W L W W L L L W W L W W L W W L L W W W W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U O U O O O U O O U O U U U O O U O U U U O O O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TOL	W 76-74	+2.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 6	vsALCN	W 76-70	-18.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 13	vsCMU	W 66-64	-5.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsCOPP	W 72-62	-18.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 19	@JXST	W 71-65	+2.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 21	@UAB	L 72-80	+7.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 30	@UTSA	W 82-58	-1.5	W +22.5	141.5	U 140
Dec 2	vsNMSU	W 77-75	+2.5	W +4.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 5	@ETSU	L 65-91	+7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 14	vsUNT	L 57-58	-1.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 115
Dec 17	@ULM	W 96-92	-9.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 188
Dec 20	@TXST	L 65-67	+3.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 132
Dec 31	@UL	W 63-58	-3.5	W +1.5	127.5	U 121
Jan 3	@TROY	L 49-59	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 108
Jan 10	vsGASO	W 87-71	-2.5	W +13.5	148.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsARST	W 91-87	+4.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 178
Jan 17	vsUL	L 56-59	-9.5	L −12.5	129.5	U 115
Jan 22	@JMU	W 90-83	+4.5	W +11.5	138.5	O 173
Jan 29	vsCCU	W 53-48	-3.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 101
Jan 31	vsGAST	W 69-67	-5.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	@APP	L 57-65	+5.5	L −2.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 7	vsBUF	W 81-69	-3.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 150
Feb 12	@USM	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	135.5	O 162
Feb 14	@ARST	W 92-88	+8.5	W +12.5	149.5	O 180
Feb 16	@MRSH	L 80-84	+6.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 19	vsTXST	L 82-90	-3.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 172
Feb 21	vsTROY	W 65-54	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 119
Feb 25	vsULM	W 89-54	-14.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 143
Feb 27	vsUSM	L 55-68	-4.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 123
Mar 6	vsGASO	L 85-94	-4.5	L −13.5	149.5	O 179
Mar 17	@AUB	L 67-78	+18.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

+4.5

ALCN

W 76-70

−12.5

CMU

W 66-64

−3.5

COPP

W 72-62

−8.5

JXST

W 71-65

+8.5

UAB

L 72-80

−0.5

UTSA

W 82-58

+22.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+4.5

ETSU

L 65-91

−18.5

UNT

L 57-58

−2.5

ULM

W 96-92

−5.5

TXST

L 65-67

+1.5

W 63-58

+1.5

TROY

L 49-59

−0.5

GASO

W 87-71

+13.5

ARST

W 91-87

+8.5

L 56-59

−12.5

JMU

W 90-83

+11.5

CCU

W 53-48

+1.5

GAST

W 69-67

−3.5

APP

L 57-65

−2.5

BUF

W 81-69

+8.5

USM

W 84-78

+7.5

ARST

W 92-88

+12.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+2.5

TXST

L 82-90

−11.5

TROY

W 65-54

+13.5

ULM

W 89-54

+20.5

USM

L 55-68

−17.5

GASO

L 85-94

−13.5

AUB

L 67-78

+7.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

−0.5

ALCN

W 76-70

+4.5

CMU

W 66-64

−12.5

COPP

W 72-62

+0.5

JXST

W 71-65

+0.5

UAB

L 72-80

+2.5

UTSA

W 82-58

−1.5

NMSU

W 77-75

+16.5

ETSU

L 65-91

+12.5

UNT

L 57-58

−20.5

ULM

W 96-92

+39.5

TXST

L 65-67

−4.5

W 63-58

−6.5

TROY

L 49-59

−40.5

GASO

W 87-71

+9.5

ARST

W 91-87

+23.5

L 56-59

−14.5

JMU

W 90-83

+34.5

CCU

W 53-48

−38.5

GAST

W 69-67

−4.5

APP

L 57-65

−9.5

BUF

W 81-69

+4.5

USM

W 84-78

+26.5

ARST

W 92-88

+30.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+13.5

TXST

L 82-90

+34.5

TROY

W 65-54

−23.5

ULM

W 89-54

−10.5

USM

L 55-68

−18.5

GASO

L 85-94

+29.5

AUB

L 67-78

−6.5

over 16under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

S Dakota St

29 games played

Straight up

11-18

38% wins

Against the spread

12-17

41% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1838%

W L L W L L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1741%

W W W W L L W L L L L W W L L L W W L W L L L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U O O U U U O U O O O O O O U O U O O U U U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 12	@ORE	L 69-83	+16.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsGAST	W 105-58	-12.5	W +34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsUVU	L 52-75	+1.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsUCI	L 52-64	+2.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 116
Dec 3	@NAU	W 75-62	-2.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsIDHO	L 81-84	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 165
Dec 9	@BALL	W 68-64	-5.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 15	vsWYO	L 72-87	+3.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 19	@MILW	L 87-88	-1.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 29	@ARIZ	L 71-99	+31.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 170
Jan 1	vsOMA	W 84-69	-9.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 3	@UND	L 87-90	-7.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 177
Jan 8	vsDEN	W 87-79	-8.5	L −0.5	162.5	O 166
Jan 14	@NDSU	L 65-76	+5.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsKC	W 90-62	-13.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 152
Jan 22	@STMN	L 69-74	+6.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 28	@OMA	L 71-80	-1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsORU	W 95-72	-13.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 167
Feb 4	vsSTMN	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsSDAK	L 67-68	-11.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 12	@DEN	L 61-79	-2.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 140
Feb 14	@ORU	W 87-69	-5.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 18	vsNDSU	L 66-74	+1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsUND	W 91-83	-9.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 174
Feb 26	@KC	W 73-59	-12.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 132
Feb 28	@SDAK	L 70-75	-3.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 5	vsSTMN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

ORE

L 69-83

+2.5

GAST

W 105-58

+34.5

UVU

L 52-75

−21.5

UCI

L 52-64

−9.5

NAU

W 75-62

+10.5

IDHO

L 81-84

−8.5

BALL

W 68-64

−1.5

WYO

L 72-87

−11.5

MILW

L 87-88

−2.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+3.5

OMA

W 84-69

+5.5

UND

L 87-90

−10.5

DEN

W 87-79

−0.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−5.5

W 90-62

+14.5

STMN

L 69-74

+1.5

OMA

L 71-80

−10.5

ORU

W 95-72

+9.5

STMN

L 62-77

−16.5

SDAK

L 67-68

−12.5

DEN

L 61-79

−20.5

ORU

W 87-69

+12.5

NDSU

L 66-74

−6.5

UND

W 91-83

−1.5

W 73-59

+1.5

SDAK

L 70-75

−8.5

STMN

L 67-80

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

ORE

L 69-83

+6.5

GAST

W 105-58

+19.5

UVU

L 52-75

−24.5

UCI

L 52-64

−28.5

NAU

W 75-62

−11.5

IDHO

L 81-84

+17.5

BALL

W 68-64

−10.5

WYO

L 72-87

+9.5

MILW

L 87-88

+23.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+10.5

OMA

W 84-69

+0.5

UND

L 87-90

+24.5

DEN

W 87-79

+3.5

NDSU

L 65-76

−10.5

W 90-62

+0.5

STMN

L 69-74

−12.5

OMA

L 71-80

+0.5

ORU

W 95-72

+16.5

STMN

L 62-77

−18.5

SDAK

L 67-68

−24.5

DEN

L 61-79

−20.5

ORU

W 87-69

+8.5

NDSU

L 66-74

−6.5

UND

W 91-83

+22.5

W 73-59

−20.5

SDAK

L 70-75

−6.5

STMN

L 67-80

−3.5

over 14under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: South Alabama 2, S Dakota St 0, even 3

South AlabamaBetterS Dakota St

G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54

G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49

G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12

F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86

USABig

F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38

F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84

USABig

C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29

South AlabamaBetterS Dakota St

USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3

Even

SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7

USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4

Even

SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7

BackcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players

USABig

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestUSA betterSDST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

South Alabama

Guards

A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew

Forwards

P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew

S Dakota St

Guards

J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min

Forwards

M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew

Centers

A. Squires14 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USA73.2 #218

SDST74.4 #182

Points per possession

USA1.10 #139

SDST1.09 #150

Pace (possessions)

USA67.1 #277

SDST68.2 #220

Shooting

Effective FG%

USA52.6 #120

SDST52.0 #143

3-point %

USA34.5 #146

SDST34.0 #174

3-point attempt rate

USA36.5 #237

SDST38.8 #193

Free throw rate

USA38.5 #89

SDST29.7 #317

Possessions

Turnover rate

USA13.1 #8

SDST16.2 #150

Offensive rebound rate

USA25.0 #341

SDST30.3 #186

Assists per game

USA11.9 #287

SDST13.8 #160

Defense

Points allowed

USA71.3 #85

SDST74.5 #177

Points allowed per possession

USA1.06 #100

SDST1.09 #198

Opponent effective FG%

USA50.1 #105

SDST51.8 #204

Opponent 3-point %

USA33.1 #133

SDST34.1 #191

Turnovers forced

USA18.0 #96

SDST14.5 #323

Defensive rebound rate

USA68.6 #222

SDST74.9 #9

Steals per game

USA7.9 #46

SDST5.5 #291

Blocks per game

USA2.2 #330

SDST2.2 #336

USA		SDST
Scoring
73.2 #218	Points per game	74.4 #182
1.10 #139	Points per possession	1.09 #150
67.1 #277	Pace (possessions)	68.2 #220
Shooting
52.6 #120	Effective FG%	52.0 #143
34.5 #146	3-point %	34.0 #174
36.5 #237	3-point attempt rate	38.8 #193
38.5 #89	Free throw rate	29.7 #317
Possessions
13.1 #8	Turnover rate	16.2 #150
25.0 #341	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #186
11.9 #287	Assists per game	13.8 #160
Defense
71.3 #85	Points allowed	74.5 #177
1.06 #100	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #198
50.1 #105	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #204
33.1 #133	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #191
18.0 #96	Turnovers forced	14.5 #323
68.6 #222	Defensive rebound rate	74.9 #9
7.9 #46	Steals per game	5.5 #291
2.2 #330	Blocks per game	2.2 #336

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn67–78
Lvs GA Southern85–94
Lvs Southern Miss55–68
Wvs UL Monroe89–54
Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs St Thomas67–80
L@ South Dakota70–75
W@ Kansas City73–59
Wvs North Dakota91–83
Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.

South Alabama Jaguars vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits

What could decide it: USA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

South Alabama

S Dakota St

South Alabama has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

South Alabama

S Dakota St