Neville Arena · at Auburn · NIT
Closing line
AUB -18.5✓ USA covered by 7.5
AUB -18.5✓ USA covered by 7.5Closing total151.5Under by 6.5
 USA | This season | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| 19-11 | Record | 17-16 |
| 16-14 | ATS | 14-19 |
| 16-14 | O/U | 19-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USA 65–87 AUB · ✓ AUB (98%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 36 | 31 | 67 |
| AUB | 30 | 48 | 78 |
1st half: USA 36, AUB 30 (USA by 6). The model had AUB by 13.3 and a total of 70.9 (actual 66).
Team stats
| USA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-60 45% | Field goals | 24-61 39% |
| 7-20 35% | 3-pointers | 16-44 36% |
| 6-11 55% | Free throws | 14-17 82% |
| 31 7 off | Rebounds | 42 13 off |
| 15 | Assists | 18 |
| 7 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 14 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaze Harris G | 38 | 29 | 8 | 6 | 12-26 | 1-3 |
| John Broom G | 37 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 34 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 5-13 | 4-8 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 28 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Randy Brady F | 24 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Stephen Williams F | 31 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| JJ Wheat G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Peyton Law, Desmond Williams, Brian Hawthorne, Samuel Shoptaw, Maxwell Land, Adam Olsen
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Hall F | 40 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 6-15 | 3-10 |
| Elyjah Freeman G | 36 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Kevin Overton G | 36 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 23 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4-11 | 1-7 |
| Filip Jovic C | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 24 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Magwood G | 17 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 4-8 | 3-7 |
| Simon Walker G | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Abdul Bashir, Drake Cardwell, Joah Shay, Reed Trapp, Blake Muschalek, CJ Williams, KeShawn Murphy
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAUB -18.5
ModelAUB -22.6
Model edgeAUB +4.1
L USA covered
Total
Market151.5
Model151.7
Model edgeOver 0.2
L Under
Projected score
USA 64.5 · AUB 87.1
USA 67 · AUB 78
Win probability
AUB 98%
1st half
Spread
AUB -13.3
USA -6.0
Total
70.9
66 points
Projected score
USA 28.8 · AUB 42.1
USA 36 · AUB 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAUB -17.5
1 → AUB
CloseAUB -18.5
1 pt toward AUB
Total
Open152.5
▼ 1
Close151.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
USA +1200 · AUB -2400
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AUB -17.5 · closed AUB -18.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel AUB -22.5
model AUB -22.5
Opened 152.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 1 downmodel 151.5 matches the line
model 151.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| AUB | 3-7 30% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Alabama
30 games played
Straight up
19-11
63% wins
Against the spread
16-14
53% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-14
53% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TOL | W 76-74 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 6 | vs ALCN | W 76-70 | -18.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 13 | vs CMU | W 66-64 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs COPP | W 72-62 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ JXST | W 71-65 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 21 | @ UAB | L 72-80 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTSA | W 82-58 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 2 | vs NMSU | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 5 | @ ETSU | L 65-91 | +7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | vs UNT | L 57-58 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Dec 17 | @ ULM | W 96-92 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | @ TXST | L 65-67 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @ UL | W 63-58 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 127.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 3 | @ TROY | L 49-59 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 10 | vs GASO | W 87-71 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 15 | vs ARST | W 91-87 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 17 | vsUL | L 56-59 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 129.5 | U 115 |
| Jan 22 | @ JMU | W 90-83 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 138.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 29 | vs CCU | W 53-48 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 139.5 | U 101 |
| Jan 31 | vs GAST | W 69-67 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 4 | @ APP | L 57-65 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 131.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 7 | vs BUF | W 81-69 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 12 | @ USM | W 84-78 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 135.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | @ARST | W 92-88 | +8.5 | W +12.5 | 149.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 16 | @ MRSH | L 80-84 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 19 | vsTXST | L 82-90 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 137.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 21 | vsTROY | W 65-54 | +2.5 | W +13.5 | 142.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 25 | vsULM | W 89-54 | -14.5 | W +20.5 | 153.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 27 | vsUSM | L 55-68 | -4.5 | L −17.5 | 141.5 | U 123 |
| Mar 6 | vsGASO | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 149.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+4.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
−18.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−2.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
−5.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
+1.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
+1.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−0.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+13.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+8.5
17
vsUL
ULL 56-59
−12.5
22
@JMU
JMUW 90-83
+11.5
29
vsCCU
CCUW 53-48
+1.5
31
vsGAST
GASTW 69-67
−3.5
4
@APP
APPL 57-65
−2.5
7
vsBUF
BUFW 81-69
+8.5
12
@USM
USMW 84-78
+7.5
14
@ARST
ARSTW 92-88
+12.5
16
@MRSH
MRSHL 80-84
+2.5
19
vsTXST
TXSTL 82-90
−11.5
21
vsTROY
TROYW 65-54
+13.5
25
vsULM
ULMW 89-54
+20.5
27
vsUSM
USML 55-68
−17.5
6
vsGASO
GASOL 85-94
−13.5
covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+16.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−20.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
+39.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
−4.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
−6.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−40.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+9.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+23.5
17
vsUL
ULL 56-59
−14.5
22
@JMU
JMUW 90-83
+34.5
29
vsCCU
CCUW 53-48
−38.5
31
vsGAST
GASTW 69-67
−4.5
4
@APP
APPL 57-65
−9.5
7
vsBUF
BUFW 81-69
+4.5
12
@USM
USMW 84-78
+26.5
14
@ARST
ARSTW 92-88
+30.5
16
@MRSH
MRSHL 80-84
+13.5
19
vsTXST
TXSTL 82-90
+34.5
21
vsTROY
TROYW 65-54
−23.5
25
vsULM
ULMW 89-54
−10.5
27
vsUSM
USML 55-68
−18.5
6
vsGASO
GASOL 85-94
+29.5
over 16under 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Auburn
33 games played
Straight up
17-16
52% wins
Against the spread
14-19
42% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
19-14
58% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BCU | W 95-90 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 6 | vs MRMK | W 95-57 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | vs WOF | W 93-62 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 16 | vs HOU | L 72-73 | +7.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 19 | vs JKST | W 112-66 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORE | W 84-73 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs MICH | L 72-102 | +4.5 | L −25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs SJU | W 85-74 | +4.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs NCSU | W 83-73 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ARIZ | L 68-97 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTC | W 92-78 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs PUR | L 60-88 | +7.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs QUC | W 106-65 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 3 | @ UGA | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 6 | vs TA&M | L 88-90 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs ARK | W 95-73 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | @ MIZ | L 74-84 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | vs SC | W 71-67 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @ MISS | W 78-66 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @ FLA | W 76-67 | +11.5 | W +20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | vs TEX | W 88-82 | -6.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | @ TENN | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 7 | vs ALA | L 92-96 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 10 | vs VAN | L 76-84 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 161.5 | U 160 |
| Feb 14 | @ARK | L 75-88 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 163 |
| Feb 18 | @ MSST | L 85-91 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 155.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 21 | vs UK | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 24 | @ OU | L 79-91 | -3.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 28 | vsMISS | L 79-85 | -10.5 | L −16.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Mar 3 | vs LSU | W 88-74 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Mar 7 | @ALA | L 84-96 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 175.5 | O 180 |
| Mar 11 | vsMSST | W 79-61 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 160.5 | U 140 |
| Mar 12 | vsTENN | L 62-72 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 144.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
−25.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
+15.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
+4.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
−17.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
−5.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−20.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
+15.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+2.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
−8.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
+19.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
−11.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−9.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
+8.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
+20.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
−0.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−2.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
−6.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−11.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-88
−5.5
18
@MSST
MSSTL 85-91
−11.5
21
vsUK
UKW 75-74
−2.5
24
@OU
OUL 79-91
−15.5
28
vsMISS
MISSL 79-85
−16.5
3
vsLSU
LSUW 88-74
+3.5
7
@ALA
ALAL 84-96
−6.5
11
vsMSST
MSSTW 79-61
+9.5
12
vsTENN
TENNL 62-72
−4.5
covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
+10.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
−7.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
−6.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
+2.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
+19.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−4.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
−0.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+30.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
+9.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
−1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
+4.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−14.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
−7.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
−16.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
+15.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−1.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
+12.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−1.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-88
−2.5
18
@MSST
MSSTL 85-91
+20.5
21
vsUK
UKW 75-74
−4.5
24
@OU
OUL 79-91
+12.5
28
vsMISS
MISSL 79-85
+10.5
3
vsLSU
LSUW 88-74
+6.5
7
@ALA
ALAL 84-96
+4.5
11
vsMSST
MSSTW 79-61
−20.5
12
vsTENN
TENNL 62-72
−10.5
over 19under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Alabama
19-11 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs GA Southern85–94
- Lvs Southern Miss55–68
- Wvs UL Monroe89–54
- Wvs Troy65–54
- Lvs Texas St82–90
A week or more of rest.
Auburn
17-16 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Tennessee62–72
- Wvs Mississippi St79–61
- L@ Alabama84–96
- Wvs LSU88–74
- Lvs Ole Miss79–85
5 days since their last game.