Neville Arena · at Auburn · Conference game
Closing line
AUB -3.5✓ UK covered by 2.5
AUB -3.5✓ UK covered by 2.5Closing total153.5Under by 4.5
 UK | This season | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| 17-9 | Record | 14-12 |
| 12-14 | ATS | 12-14 |
| 13-13 | O/U | 15-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UK 79–82 AUB · ✓ AUB (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 39 | 35 | 74 |
| AUB | 35 | 40 | 75 |
1st half: UK 39, AUB 35 (UK by 4). The model had AUB by 1.6 and a total of 75.0 (actual 74).
Team stats
| UK | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-65 42% | Field goals | 25-62 40% |
| 6-23 26% | 3-pointers | 5-19 26% |
| 14-17 82% | Free throws | 20-24 83% |
| 38 17 off | Rebounds | 33 13 off |
| 15 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 38 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 5-14 | 3-8 |
| Otega Oweh G | 35 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 11-20 | 1-3 |
| Collin Chandler G | 25 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-6 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 24 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 13 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mo Dioubate F | 30 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Trent Noah F | 19 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaland Lowe, Kam Williams, Zach Tow, Braydon Hawthorne, Reece Potter, Jayden Quaintance, Walker Horn
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Hall F | 37 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 3-15 | 1-6 |
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 35 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-4 |
| Kevin Overton G | 31 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 29 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 24 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 9-14 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elyjah Freeman G | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-4 |
| Filip Jovic C | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Blake Muschalek G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kaden Magwood, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Abdul Bashir, CJ Williams, Drake Cardwell, Joah Shay, Simon Walker, Reed Trapp
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAUB -3.5
ModelAUB -3.0
Model edgeUK +0.5
W UK covered
Total
Market153.5
Model160.4
Model edgeOver 6.9
L Under
Projected score
UK 78.7 · AUB 81.7
UK 74 · AUB 75
Win probability
AUB 60%
1st half
Spread
AUB -1.6
UK -4.0
Total
75.0
74 points
Projected score
UK 36.7 · AUB 38.3
UK 39 · AUB 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAUB -2.5
1 → AUB
CloseAUB -3.5
1 pt toward AUB
Total
Open157.5
▼ 4
Close153.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
UK +150 · AUB -180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AUB -2.5 · closed AUB -3.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel AUB -3
model AUB -3
Opened 157.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 4 downmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| AUB | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UK 2–2 AUBSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · UK 2-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | AUB 94 @ UK 78 | UK +4.5 | AUB W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | UK 70 @ AUB 59 | AUB -8.5 | UK W |
| Feb 25, 2022-23 | AUB 54 @ UK 86 | UK -4.5 | UK W |
| Jan 22, 2021-22 | UK 71 @ AUB 80 | AUB -3.5 | AUB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kentucky
26 games played
Straight up
17-9
65% wins
Against the spread
12-14
46% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-13
50% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs MSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @ LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vs TEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vs MISS | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ VAN | L 55-80 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ ARK | W 85-77 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs OU | W 94-78 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | vsTENN | W 74-71 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @ FLA | L 83-92 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vs UGA | L 78-86 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−2.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−19.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+14.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+7.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
+1.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+3.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
−14.5
covered 12didn’t cover 14avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−10.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−20.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+2.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+19.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
−2.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+20.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
+2.5
over 13under 13avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Auburn
26 games played
Straight up
14-12
54% wins
Against the spread
12-14
46% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-11
58% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BCU | W 95-90 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 6 | vs MRMK | W 95-57 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | vs WOF | W 93-62 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 16 | vs HOU | L 72-73 | +7.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 19 | vs JKST | W 112-66 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORE | W 84-73 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs MICH | L 72-102 | +4.5 | L −25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vsSJU | W 85-74 | +4.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs NCSU | W 83-73 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ARIZ | L 68-97 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTC | W 92-78 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs PUR | L 60-88 | +7.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs QUC | W 106-65 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 3 | @UGA | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 6 | vs TA&M | L 88-90 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vsARK | W 95-73 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | @MIZ | L 74-84 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | vs SC | W 71-67 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @MISS | W 78-66 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @FLA | W 76-67 | +11.5 | W +20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | vsTEX | W 88-82 | -6.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | @TENN | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 7 | vsALA | L 92-96 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 10 | vsVAN | L 76-84 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 161.5 | U 160 |
| Feb 14 | @ARK | L 75-88 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 163 |
| Feb 18 | @MSST | L 85-91 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 155.5 | O 176 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
−25.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
+15.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
+4.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
−17.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
−5.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−20.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
+15.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+2.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
−8.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
+19.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
−11.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−9.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
+8.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
+20.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
−0.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−2.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
−6.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−11.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-88
−5.5
18
@MSST
MSSTL 85-91
−11.5
covered 12didn’t cover 14avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
+10.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
−7.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
−6.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
+2.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
+19.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−4.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
−0.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+30.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
+9.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
−1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
+4.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−14.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
−7.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
−16.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
+15.5
31
@TENN
TENNL 69-77
−1.5
7
vsALA
ALAL 92-96
+12.5
10
vsVAN
VANL 76-84
−1.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-88
−2.5
18
@MSST
MSSTL 85-91
+20.5
over 15under 11avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kentucky
17-9 overall · 8-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Georgia78–86
- L@ Florida83–92
- Wvs Tennessee74–71
- Wvs Oklahoma94–78
- W@ Arkansas85–77
4 days since their last game.
Auburn
14-12 overall · 5-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Mississippi St85–91
- L@ Arkansas75–88
- Lvs Vanderbilt76–84
- Lvs Alabama92–96
- L@ Tennessee69–77
3 days since their last game.