Pepperdine Waves at Cornell Big Red: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 6:00 PM ETNewman Arena · at Cornell

LinePEPP -3.5moved 2 toward PEPP

Total164.5up 1 from 163.5

Season records: Pepperdine and Cornell
PEPP	This season	COR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COR 82–80 · win probability COR 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

PEPP -3.5

moved 2 toward PEPP

Total

164.5

model 161.5 · Under by 3

Model edge

COR by 5.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COR has more of the edges

PEPP 2, COR 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PEPPBig

PEPP offense vs COR defense

Offense 139th of 366 against a defense 319th, on the model’s ratings

PEPPBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PEPP 33.9, COR 30.2. Allowed: PEPP 28.5, COR 37.2

CORBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PEPP 47.6 and allows 54.2; COR 58.5 and allows 55.9

CORBig

Three-pointers

PEPP hits 31.4% and allows 35.5%; COR hits 38.3% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 39.2% and 51.6% of their shots

CORSmall

COR offense vs PEPP defense

Offense 111th of 366 against a defense 216th, on the model’s ratings

CORSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PEPP 5%, COR 53%. Transfers in: PEPP 7, COR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

CORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PEPP 29.1%, COR 30.2%. Defensive: PEPP 66.0%, COR 69.4%

CORSmall

Home court

COR at home. This season: COR 0-0 at home, PEPP 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: PEPP plays 70.0 a game (117th fastest), COR 72.0 (36th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PEPP 18.3%, COR 16.1%. Forced: PEPP 16.5%, COR 15.0%

Context

Schedule so far

PEPP has played the 128th-hardest schedule, COR the 144th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5	1543	67%	51%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1736	67%	50%	49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 160 to 164.5	787	78%	50%	54%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenPEPP -1.5

2 → PEPP

NowPEPP -3.5

2 pts toward PEPP

Total

Open163.5

▲ 1

Now164.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

PEPP -175 · COR +142

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened PEPP -1.5 · now PEPP -3.5 · moved 2 toward PEPPmodel COR -2

model COR -2

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 164.5TotalUnder 164.5

Bets

20%80%

Money

21%79%

PEPPWinner

COR

Bets

74%26%

Money

95%

Money is 21 pts ahead of bets on PEPP

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	PEPP	COR	Over	Under	PEPP	COR
BetMGMMGM	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	163.5-115	163.5-105	-175	+145
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	164-110	164-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+3.5-110	-3.5-112	163.5-115	163.5-107	-177	+140
BetUSBetUS	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	164-110	164-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	164-110	164-110	-150	+130
DraftKingsDK	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	164.5-105	164.5-115	-185	+154
FanDuelFD	+3.5-112	-3.5-108	163.5-106	163.5-114	-172	+142
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3.5-106	-3.5-106	164-108	164-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	PEPP -3.5	COR -2.0	COR +5.5
Total	164.5	161.5	Under 3.0
Projected score	—	PEPP 79.8 · COR 81.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COR -1.1	—
1H total	75.5	—
1H projected score	PEPP 37.2 · COR 38.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PEPP WLWWL	14-16	47%	8-5	1-0
COR LWLWL	11-15	42%	2-7	3-7

Venue/role: PEPP away, as favorite; COR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PEPP OOOOU	15-15	50%	7-23
COR UUOOO	14-12	54%	13-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PEPP	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
COR	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pepperdine

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ SHSU	No recent meeting
Nov 15	@ ORE	L59–68WU
Nov 19	vs UCSB	L64–67LU

Cornell

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ LEH	W84–78LO
Nov 11	@ SBU	No recent meeting
Nov 14	vs UNCG	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pepperdine

30 games played

Straight up

7-23

23% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2323%

L L W L L L L L W L W L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L W L L L L L W W W L L W W L L W W L L W L L W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U U U U U O O U U U O U U U U O O O O O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsFRES	L 53-76	+2.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 29	@CSUF	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 2	vsACU	L 63-71	+1.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsUVM	L 56-65	+1.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 13	@CSUB	W 70-62	+1.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 18	@LBSU	L 78-81	+4.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsRICE	W 84-62	+1.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 146
Dec 28	vsGONZ	L 56-96	+29.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 152
Dec 30	vsSMC	L 45-72	+19.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	@SCU	L 63-82	+20.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 4	@PAC	L 69-74	+11.5	W +6.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 8	@USD	L 63-83	+4.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 10	vsSF	L 60-80	+7.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 140
Jan 14	vsPORT	W 67-63	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 130
Jan 21	@GONZ	L 60-84	+28.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 144
Jan 24	@WSU	L 79-95	+11.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 174
Jan 28	vsUSD	L 88-92	+2.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 180
Feb 4	@SEA	L 81-83	+12.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsPAC	L 59-92	+7.5	L −25.5	142.5	O 151
Feb 11	@SMC	L 60-88	+24.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	vsLMU	W 90-89	+5.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 18	@PORT	W 95-87	+7.5	W +15.5	150.5	O 182
Feb 21	@ORST	L 73-83	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsSEA	L 80-87	+7.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsWSU	W 88-79	+7.5	W +16.5	158.5	O 167
Mar 5	vsPORT	L 68-77	+3.5	L −5.5	154.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

FRES

L 53-76

−20.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−12.5

ACU

L 63-71

−6.5

UVM

L 56-65

−7.5

CSUB

W 70-62

+9.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+1.5

RICE

W 84-62

+23.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−10.5

SMC

L 45-72

−7.5

SCU

L 63-82

+1.5

PAC

L 69-74

+6.5

USD

L 63-83

−15.5

L 60-80

−12.5

PORT

W 67-63

+5.5

GONZ

L 60-84

+4.5

WSU

L 79-95

−4.5

USD

L 88-92

−1.5

SEA

L 81-83

+10.5

PAC

L 59-92

−25.5

SMC

L 60-88

−3.5

LMU

W 90-89

+6.5

PORT

W 95-87

+15.5

ORST

L 73-83

−0.5

SEA

L 80-87

+0.5

WSU

W 88-79

+16.5

PORT

L 68-77

−5.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

FRES

L 53-76

−21.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−9.5

ACU

L 63-71

−3.5

UVM

L 56-65

−21.5

CSUB

W 70-62

−15.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+17.5

RICE

W 84-62

+5.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−0.5

SMC

L 45-72

−24.5

SCU

L 63-82

−5.5

PAC

L 69-74

+4.5

USD

L 63-83

−3.5

L 60-80

−0.5

PORT

W 67-63

−17.5

GONZ

L 60-84

−6.5

WSU

L 79-95

+27.5

USD

L 88-92

+28.5

SEA

L 81-83

+24.5

PAC

L 59-92

+8.5

SMC

L 60-88

+3.5

LMU

W 90-89

+31.5

PORT

W 95-87

+31.5

ORST

L 73-83

+7.5

SEA

L 80-87

+21.5

WSU

W 88-79

+8.5

PORT

L 68-77

−9.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cornell

26 games played

Straight up

13-13

50% wins

Against the spread

11-15

42% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-12

54% overs · avg +6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1350%

L L W W W W L L L W L L L L W W W L W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-1542%

L L W L L W L L L W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1254%

O U O U O O O O O U O O O U U O U U U U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@KENT	L 102-110	+6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 9	@ILST	L 65-76	+6.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 13	@LAF	W 97-78	-4.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 18	vsARMY	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 20	vsCOLG	W 95-94	-5.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 30	@BUCK	W 101-72	-5.5	W +23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 2	@GMU	L 81-99	+10.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 3	@TOW	L 80-93	+6.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 173
Dec 7	@SAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	166.5	O 183
Dec 21	@UALB	W 83-75	-6.5	W +1.5	167.5	U 158
Dec 29	@MSU	L 97-114	+23.5	W +6.5	160.5	O 211
Jan 5	vsCOLU	L 99-104	-3.5	L −8.5	170.5	O 203
Jan 10	vsDART	L 91-102	-9.5	L −20.5	175.5	O 193
Jan 17	@YALE	L 68-102	+9.5	L −24.5	174.5	U 170
Jan 19	@BRWN	W 89-67	-2.5	W +19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@HARV	W 86-79	+1.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 165
Jan 30	vsPRIN	W 87-64	-7.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 151
Jan 31	vsPENN	L 81-91	-7.5	L −17.5	173.5	U 172
Feb 7	@COLU	W 88-67	-1.5	W +19.5	171.5	U 155
Feb 13	@PRIN	W 89-65	-3.5	W +20.5	155.5	U 154
Feb 14	@PENN	L 76-82	-2.5	L −8.5	169.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsHARV	L 54-73	-4.5	L −23.5	155.5	U 127
Feb 27	vsYALE	W 72-69	+4.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsBRWN	W 86-80	-9.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 166
Mar 7	@DART	W 111-90	-4.5	W +16.5	166.5	O 201
Mar 14	vsYALE	L 76-88	+5.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

−1.5

ILST

L 65-76

−4.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−4.5

COLG

W 95-94

−4.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+23.5

GMU

L 81-99

−7.5

TOW

L 80-93

−6.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

UALB

W 83-75

+1.5

MSU

L 97-114

+6.5

COLU

L 99-104

−8.5

DART

L 91-102

−20.5

YALE

L 68-102

−24.5

BRWN

W 89-67

+19.5

HARV

W 86-79

+8.5

PRIN

W 87-64

+15.5

PENN

L 81-91

−17.5

COLU

W 88-67

+19.5

PRIN

W 89-65

+20.5

PENN

L 76-82

−8.5

HARV

L 54-73

−23.5

YALE

W 72-69

+7.5

BRWN

W 86-80

−3.5

DART

W 111-90

+16.5

YALE

L 76-88

−6.5

covered 11didn’t cover 15avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

+47.5

ILST

L 65-76

−23.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−5.5

COLG

W 95-94

+27.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+13.5

GMU

L 81-99

+24.5

TOW

L 80-93

+18.5

SAM

L 90-93

+16.5

UALB

W 83-75

−9.5

MSU

L 97-114

+50.5

COLU

L 99-104

+32.5

DART

L 91-102

+17.5

YALE

L 68-102

−4.5

BRWN

W 89-67

−7.5

HARV

W 86-79

+4.5

PRIN

W 87-64

−7.5

PENN

L 81-91

−1.5

COLU

W 88-67

−16.5

PRIN

W 89-65

−1.5

PENN

L 76-82

−11.5

HARV

L 54-73

−28.5

YALE

W 72-69

−23.5

BRWN

W 86-80

+9.5

DART

W 111-90

+34.5

YALE

L 76-88

+0.5

over 14under 12avg +6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pepperdine has the better starters

Position by position: Pepperdine 3, Cornell 0, even 2

PepperdineBetterCornell

G J. Williamson TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 58

PEPPSmall

G J. Beccles7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 37

G W. McClendon TR13.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Nimani5.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 30

F P. Majstorovic TR14.4 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 78

No call

G M. Rafiq4.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

F Y. Fritz TR9.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 58

PEPPSmall

F K. Sepp4.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 28

F E. Meuser TR6.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 39

PEPPSmall

F G. Panzini2.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 9

PepperdineBetterCornell

PEPP offense139th of 366 · -4.2

PEPPBig

COR defense319th of 366 · -8.3

PEPP defense216th of 366 · -5.6

CORSmall

COR offense111th of 366 · -1.8

Backcourt+1.6 · 2 players

PEPPBig

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.2 · 3 players

PEPPBig

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Bench-1.6 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPEPP betterCOR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pepperdine

Guards

J. Williamson26 min · TRW. McClendon25 min · TRE. Haywood19 min · TRD. Mager10 minA. BalianNewC. ChouNew

Forwards

P. Majstorovic32 min · TRY. Fritz26 min · TRE. Meuser21 min · TRA. Robinson10 min · TRA. ConstanzaNewF. BiberovicNew

Cornell

Guards

J. Beccles24 minA. Nimani18 minM. Rafiq8 minD. Fishburn8 minR. Burbach8 minE. GriffinNew

Forwards

K. Sepp19 minG. Panzini10 minI. Imegwu5 minJ. Abalos5 minT. Iwanonkiw3 minB. LecklitnerNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PEPP70.4 #277

COR85.8 #13

Points per possession

PEPP1.00 #320

COR1.20 #17

Pace (possessions)

PEPP70.0 #117

COR72.0 #36

Shooting

Effective FG%

PEPP47.6 #323

COR58.5 #7

3-point %

PEPP31.4 #310

COR38.3 #14

3-point attempt rate

PEPP39.2 #187

COR51.6 #8

Free throw rate

PEPP33.9 #216

COR30.2 #304

Possessions

Turnover rate

PEPP18.3 #288

COR16.1 #144

Offensive rebound rate

PEPP29.1 #234

COR30.2 #193

Assists per game

PEPP13.6 #176

COR20.0 #1

Defense

Points allowed

PEPP79.7 #311

COR84.6 #358

Points allowed per possession

PEPP1.14 #303

COR1.17 #343

Opponent effective FG%

PEPP54.2 #306

COR55.9 #343

Opponent 3-point %

PEPP35.5 #276

COR37.5 #349

Turnovers forced

PEPP16.5 #184

COR15.0 #287

Defensive rebound rate

PEPP66.0 #318

COR69.4 #187

Steals per game

PEPP5.9 #246

COR5.8 #263

Blocks per game

PEPP2.8 #269

COR2.8 #267

PEPP		COR
Scoring
70.4 #277	Points per game	85.8 #13
1.00 #320	Points per possession	1.20 #17
70.0 #117	Pace (possessions)	72.0 #36
Shooting
47.6 #323	Effective FG%	58.5 #7
31.4 #310	3-point %	38.3 #14
39.2 #187	3-point attempt rate	51.6 #8
33.9 #216	Free throw rate	30.2 #304
Possessions
18.3 #288	Turnover rate	16.1 #144
29.1 #234	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #193
13.6 #176	Assists per game	20.0 #1
Defense
79.7 #311	Points allowed	84.6 #358
1.14 #303	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #343
54.2 #306	Opponent effective FG%	55.9 #343
35.5 #276	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #349
16.5 #184	Turnovers forced	15.0 #287
66.0 #318	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #187
5.9 #246	Steals per game	5.8 #263
2.8 #269	Blocks per game	2.8 #267

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pepperdine

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Portland68–77
Wvs Washington St88–79
Lvs Seattle U80–87
L@ Oregon St73–83
W@ Portland95–87

A week or more of rest.

Cornell

13-13 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Yale76–88
W@ Dartmouth111–90
Wvs Brown86–80
Wvs Yale72–69
Lvs Harvard54–73

A week or more of rest.