Cornell Big Red at Harvard Crimson: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 24, 2:00 PM ETLavietes Pavilion · at Harvard · Conference game

#179CORCornell86▲ winner

Final

#136HARVHarvard79final

Closing lineHARV -1.5✓ COR covered by 8.5

Closing total160.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Cornell and Harvard
COR	This season	HARV
6-9	Record	9-8
5-10	ATS	8-9
10-5	O/U	7-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COR 81–83 HARV · ✗ HARV (59%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COR	36	50	86
HARV	44	35	79

1st half: COR 36, HARV 44 (HARV by 8). The model had HARV by 1.5 and a total of 76.6 (actual 80).

Team stats

COR		HARV
27-51 53%	Field goals	26-55 47%
11-24 46%	3-pointers	12-28 43%
21-26 81%	Free throws	15-18 83%
30 8 off	Rebounds	27 8 off
18	Assists	19
4	Steals	8
1	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	9
14	Fouls	21
28	Points in paint	24
5	Fast-break points	10

Players

COR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Fiegen G	32	15	4	4	5-9	2-4
Cooper Noard G	31	19	4	1	6-12	2-6
Adam Hinton G	29	27	5	1	9-16	6-9
Jacob Beccles G	25	3	1	1	1-3	0-1
Josh Baldwin G	24	8	0	3	2-3	0-0
Bench
Anthony Nimani G	21	6	3	2	2-2	0-0
Kaspar Sepp F	21	3	9	4	1-2	0-0
Corbin Zentner G	10	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
DJ Nix F	5	2	1	1	0-1	0-1
Gioacchino Panzini F	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Blake Lecklitner, Ryan Burbach, Jax Abalos, Elijah Griffin, DaMaryon Fishburn, AJ Rodriguez, Ty Iwanonkiw, Mateen Rafiq, Ian Imegwu, AJ LaBeau

HARV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tey Barbour G	38	18	5	3	4-11	4-11
Thomas Batties II F	37	14	6	4	5-9	2-4
Ben Eisendrath G	33	11	2	6	3-9	1-2
Robert Hinton G	20	19	6	1	7-12	4-6
Chandler Pigge G	15	4	2	2	1-3	0-0
Bench
Frankie Mannino G	21	11	3	0	5-5	1-1
Dutch Dowdell G	12	0	1	1	0-4	0-3
Xavier Nesbitt G	9	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
Ryan Sullivan F	8	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Joseph Quartey G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Luca Ace-Nasteski F	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Avner Dror, Alex Touomou, Austin Hunt, Kenan Parrish, Payton Pitts, Greg Cooper

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HARV -1.5	HARV -2.7	HARV +1.2	L COR covered
Total	160.5	163.7	Over 3.2	W Over
Projected score	—	COR 80.5 · HARV 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HARV -1.5	HARV -8.0
1H total	76.6	80
1H projected score	COR 37.6 · HARV 39.1	COR 36 · HARV 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COR WLLLW	5-10	33%	5-6	1-6
HARV WLWWL	8-9	47%	2-5	3-6

Venue/role: COR away, as underdog; HARV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COR OOOUU	10-5	67%	6-9
HARV OUUOU	7-10	41%	9-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
HARV	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

COR 4–4 HARVSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · COR 4-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 14, 2024-25	COR 73 @ HARV 75	HARV +6.5	HARV W
Feb 1, 2024-25	HARV 60 @ COR 75	COR -8.5	COR W
Feb 16, 2023-24	HARV 62 @ COR 75	COR -9.5	COR W
Feb 3, 2023-24	COR 89 @ HARV 76	HARV +4	COR W
Feb 18, 2022-23	HARV 73 @ COR 56	COR -5.5	HARV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cornell

15 games played

Straight up

6-9

40% wins

Against the spread

5-10

33% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-5

67% overs · avg +14.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-940%

L L W W W W L L L W L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-1033%

L L W L L W L L L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-567%

O U O U O O O O O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@KENT	L 102-110	+6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 9	@ILST	L 65-76	+6.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 13	@LAF	W 97-78	-4.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 18	vsARMY	W 86-73	-17.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 20	vsCOLG	W 95-94	-5.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 30	@BUCK	W 101-72	-5.5	W +23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 2	@GMU	L 81-99	+10.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 3	@TOW	L 80-93	+6.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 173
Dec 7	@SAM	L 90-93	+2.5	L −0.5	166.5	O 183
Dec 21	@UALB	W 83-75	-6.5	W +1.5	167.5	U 158
Dec 29	@MSU	L 97-114	+23.5	W +6.5	160.5	O 211
Jan 5	vsCOLU	L 99-104	-3.5	L −8.5	170.5	O 203
Jan 10	vsDART	L 91-102	-9.5	L −20.5	175.5	O 193
Jan 17	@YALE	L 68-102	+9.5	L −24.5	174.5	U 170
Jan 19	@BRWN	W 89-67	-2.5	W +19.5	163.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

−1.5

ILST

L 65-76

−4.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−4.5

COLG

W 95-94

−4.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+23.5

GMU

L 81-99

−7.5

TOW

L 80-93

−6.5

SAM

L 90-93

−0.5

UALB

W 83-75

+1.5

MSU

L 97-114

+6.5

COLU

L 99-104

−8.5

DART

L 91-102

−20.5

YALE

L 68-102

−24.5

BRWN

W 89-67

+19.5

covered 5didn’t cover 10avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

+47.5

ILST

L 65-76

−23.5

LAF

W 97-78

+14.5

ARMY

W 86-73

−5.5

COLG

W 95-94

+27.5

BUCK

W 101-72

+13.5

GMU

L 81-99

+24.5

TOW

L 80-93

+18.5

SAM

L 90-93

+16.5

UALB

W 83-75

−9.5

MSU

L 97-114

+50.5

COLU

L 99-104

+32.5

DART

L 91-102

+17.5

YALE

L 68-102

−4.5

BRWN

W 89-67

−7.5

over 10under 5avg +14.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Harvard

17 games played

Straight up

9-8

53% wins

Against the spread

8-9

47% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-10

41% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-853%

W L W W L L L W L L W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-947%

L L W W W L L L L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-1041%

O U U U O O U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	@BC	L 60-73	+7.5	L −5.5	138.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsBRY	W 56-53	-7.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 109
Dec 3	@MASS	L 71-78	+5.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 149
Dec 6	@FUR	L 69-79	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 20	vsHC	W 81-53	-10.5	W +17.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 23	@SJU	L 59-85	+26.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 144
Dec 28	@COLG	W 78-69	+3.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 5	vsDART	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	@COLU	W 79-54	+5.5	W +30.5	145.5	U 133
Jan 17	vsPRIN	W 87-80	-4.5	W +2.5	133.5	O 167
Jan 19	vsPENN	W 64-63	-5.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−4.5

MASS

L 71-78

−1.5

FUR

L 69-79

−5.5

W 81-53

+17.5

SJU

L 59-85

+0.5

COLG

W 78-69

+12.5

DART

L 68-76

−15.5

COLU

W 79-54

+30.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+2.5

PENN

W 64-63

−4.5

covered 8didn’t cover 9avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

L 60-73

−5.5

BRY

W 56-53

−28.5

MASS

L 71-78

+5.5

FUR

L 69-79

+6.5

W 81-53

−2.5

SJU

L 59-85

−1.5

COLG

W 78-69

+5.5

DART

L 68-76

−4.5

COLU

W 79-54

−12.5

PRIN

W 87-80

+33.5

PENN

W 64-63

−23.5

over 7under 10avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cornell Big Red at Harvard Crimson

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cornell

Harvard

Cornell

Harvard