Harvard Crimson at Boston College Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 4:00 PM ETConte Forum · at Boston College

#136HARVHarvard60final

Final

Closing lineBC -7.5✓ BC covered by 5.5

Closing total138.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Harvard and Boston College
HARV	This season	BC
3-3	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	2-5
3-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HARV 66–74 BC · ✓ BC (75%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HARV	30	30	60
BC	38	35	73

1st half: HARV 30, BC 38 (BC by 8). The model had BC by 4.5 and a total of 65.9 (actual 68).

Team stats

HARV		BC
25-60 42%	Field goals	26-59 44%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	12-30 40%
5-6 83%	Free throws	9-10 90%
33 7 off	Rebounds	34 7 off
11	Assists	14
5	Steals	2
1	Blocks	6
10	Turnovers	7
11	Fouls	10
24	Points in paint	24
8	Fast-break points	3

Players

HARV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chandler Pigge G	31	12	2	3	6-16	0-5
Robert Hinton G	31	12	9	2	6-14	0-2
Tey Barbour G	31	15	9	1	5-9	2-5
Thomas Batties II F	31	13	2	0	4-7	3-4
Ben Eisendrath G	21	0	2	4	0-3	0-1
Bench
Austin Hunt G	20	4	2	0	2-5	0-1
Xavier Nesbitt G	11	2	1	1	1-3	0-0
Frankie Mannino G	9	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Luca Ace-Nasteski F	6	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Ryan Sullivan F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Kenan Parrish F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dutch Dowdell G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Joseph Quartey, Alex Touomou, Avner Dror, Payton Pitts, Greg Cooper

BC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Donald Hand Jr. G	35	9	7	2	3-7	3-5
Fred Payne G	32	17	3	2	7-12	3-6
Aidan Shaw F	28	7	6	2	3-5	1-2
Chase Forte G	24	6	0	4	2-6	1-3
Jayden Hastings F	15	10	4	0	3-6	0-0
Bench
Boden Kapke F	25	10	6	2	3-7	0-2
Luka Toews G	16	3	1	2	1-3	1-2
Marko Radunovic F	11	2	0	0	1-6	0-3
Caleb Steger G	8	9	2	0	3-4	3-4
Kany Musungay F	6	0	2	0	0-3	0-3

Did not play: Jason Asemota, Will Eggemeier, Nick Petronio, Akbar Waheed III, Jack DiDonna, Jack Bailey

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BC -7.5	BC -7.8	BC +0.3	W BC covered
Total	138.5	140.5	Over 2.0	L Under
Projected score	—	HARV 66.4 · BC 74.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BC -4.5	BC -8.0
1H total	65.9	68
1H projected score	HARV 30.7 · BC 35.2	HARV 30 · BC 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HARV LWWWL	3-3	50%	3-0	2-0
BC LWLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: HARV away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HARV UUUOO	3-3	50%	3-3
BC UOUUO	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HARVlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
BClast 7	3-4 43%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HARV 0–1 BCBC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · HARV 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2023-24	HARV 64 @ BC 73	BC -5.5	BC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Harvard

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsBU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

L 74-75

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

L 74-75

+12.5

over 3under 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston College

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@FAU	L 78-83	+1.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 6	vsCIT	W 76-47	-15.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsCCSU	L 59-60	-17.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 119
Nov 15	@TEM	W 76-71	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 18	vsHAMP	W 63-52	-12.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 115
Nov 21	vsDAV	L 49-59	-1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsTULN	L 90-93	-2.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAU

L 78-83

−3.5

CIT

W 76-47

+13.5

CCSU

L 59-60

−18.5

TEM

W 76-71

+8.5

HAMP

W 63-52

−1.5

DAV

L 49-59

−11.5

TULN

L 90-93

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAU

L 78-83

+12.5

CIT

W 76-47

−21.5

CCSU

L 59-60

−17.5

TEM

W 76-71

+4.5

HAMP

W 63-52

−20.5

DAV

L 49-59

−32.5

TULN

L 90-93

+42.5

over 3under 4avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Harvard Crimson at Boston College Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Harvard

Boston College

Harvard

Boston College