Harvard Crimson vs Boston University Terriers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 1:30 PM ETMohegan Sun Arena · Neutral site

#136HARVHarvard74final

Final

#261BUBoston U75▲ winner

Closing lineHARV -4.5✓ BU covered by 5.5

Closing total136.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Harvard and Boston U
HARV	This season	BU
3-2	Record	2-3
3-2	ATS	2-3
2-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HARV 71–69 BU · ✗ HARV (58%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HARV	35	39	74
BU	32	43	75

1st half: HARV 35, BU 32 (HARV by 3). The model had HARV by 1.5 and a total of 65.5 (actual 67).

Team stats

HARV		BU
29-53 55%	Field goals	30-48 63%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	11-21 52%
7-9 78%	Free throws	4-8 50%
18 4 off	Rebounds	22 3 off
21	Assists	20
9	Steals	9
1	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	15
10	Fouls	7
34	Points in paint	34
12	Fast-break points	7

Players

HARV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Robert Hinton G	38	34	4	3	13-17	4-5
Tey Barbour G	35	15	3	1	5-10	3-7
Ben Eisendrath G	34	2	3	9	1-2	0-1
Thomas Batties II F	34	14	2	6	6-9	2-4
Chandler Pigge G	32	5	1	2	2-8	0-2
Bench
Frankie Mannino G	10	4	2	0	2-2	0-0
Xavier Nesbitt G	5	0	0	0	0-3	0-2
Ryan Sullivan F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Kenan Parrish F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Dutch Dowdell G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Avner Dror, Joseph Quartey, Alex Touomou, Austin Hunt, Payton Pitts, Luca Ace-Nasteski, Greg Cooper

BU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ben Defty C	34	16	4	3	7-10	0-0
Chance Gladden G	34	20	2	3	8-12	2-5
Mike McNair Jr. G	32	9	4	4	3-6	3-5
Ben Roy G	32	9	2	3	4-6	1-1
Sam Hughes F	22	2	2	3	1-3	0-2
Bench
Ethan Okwuosa G	20	10	5	1	4-5	2-3
Azmar Abdullah G	20	9	1	3	3-6	3-5
Quinn Nielsen F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Andrew Bhesania, Malcolm Chimezie, Donte Tisinger Jr., Peter Carr, Spencer Joyner, Kyrone Alexander, Matai Baptiste, Otto Landrum

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HARV -4.5	HARV -2.3	BU +2.3	W BU covered
Total	136.5	139.7	Over 3.2	W Over
Projected score	—	HARV 71 · BU 68.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HARV -1.5	HARV -3.0
1H total	65.5	67
1H projected score	HARV 33.5 · BU 32	HARV 35 · BU 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
HARV LLWWW	3-2	60%	—	1-2
BU WLWLL	2-3	40%	—	1-2

Venue/role: HARV neutral site, as favorite; BU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HARV OUUUO	2-3	40%	3-2
BU OUOOU	3-2	60%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HARVlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
BUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Harvard

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 16	@MRST	W 56-54	+6.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 19	@PSU	L 80-84	+12.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

MRST

W 56-54

+8.5

PSU

L 80-84

+8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

MRST

W 56-54

−20.5

PSU

L 80-84

+21.5

over 2under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston U

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

over 3under 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Harvard Crimson vs Boston University Terriers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Harvard

Boston U

Harvard

Boston U