Fairfield Stags at Le Moyne Dolphins: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ETTed Grant Court · at Le Moyne

#239FAIRFairfield97▲ winner

Final

#332LEMLe Moyne83final

Closing lineFAIR -1.5✓ FAIR covered by 12.5

Closing total145.5Over by 34.5

Season records: Fairfield and Le Moyne
FAIR	This season	LEM
3-2	Record	1-3
2-3	ATS	3-1
3-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FAIR 76–75 LEM · ✓ FAIR (53%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FAIR	56	41	97
LEM	38	45	83

1st half: FAIR 56, LEM 38 (FAIR by 18). The model had FAIR by 0.7 and a total of 70.6 (actual 94).

Team stats

FAIR		LEM
35-67 52%	Field goals	26-55 47%
7-18 39%	3-pointers	11-23 48%
20-23 87%	Free throws	20-30 67%
35 14 off	Rebounds	34 14 off
14	Assists	18
8	Steals	2
2	Blocks	4
7	Turnovers	15
18	Fouls	21
54	Points in paint	30
17	Fast-break points	6

Players

FAIR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Sparks G	30	10	7	1	4-11	0-3
Brandon Benjamin F	29	18	8	4	7-11	0-0
Deuce Turner G	28	17	2	3	4-8	3-4
Declan Wucherpfennig G	25	17	4	0	7-10	1-2
Eric Mejia G	21	6	2	2	1-4	0-2
Bench
Michael Rogan G	15	4	2	0	2-4	0-1
Nasir Rodriguez G	12	8	2	1	3-7	1-3
Isaac Munkadi F	11	4	2	0	2-2	0-0
Halon Rawlins G	10	9	1	0	3-4	2-2
Tony Williams G	10	4	1	1	2-4	0-1
Cam Estevez G	9	0	3	2	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Luke Davidson, Tanner Ostop, Aidan May, Peyton Smith, Joe Ganton, Matt Curtis, Ryan Zan, Noah Best

LEM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jakai Sanders G	32	6	4	4	1-9	0-2
Deng Garang G	32	6	4	3	3-8	0-2
Trent Mosquera G	31	18	7	3	5-10	5-6
Shilo Jackson F	22	18	9	0	5-6	0-0
Jakob Blakley G	8	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Tennessee Rainwater F	18	9	0	1	3-3	1-1
Samuel Hincapie G	16	10	1	0	4-8	1-4
Eli Greenberg G	14	6	0	4	2-4	2-4
Trevor Roe F	13	5	4	2	2-5	1-3
Josiah Lee G	7	3	1	1	1-1	1-1
Isaac Nyakundi F	7	2	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Nate Fouts, Sam Donnelly, Kaelin Thomas, Ametri Moss

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FAIR -1.5	FAIR -0.9	LEM +0.6	L FAIR covered
Total	145.5	150.7	Over 5.2	W Over
Projected score	—	FAIR 75.8 · LEM 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FAIR -0.7	FAIR -18.0
1H total	70.6	94
1H projected score	FAIR 35.7 · LEM 34.9	FAIR 56 · LEM 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAIR WWLLL	2-3	40%	2-1	1-2
LEM WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: FAIR away, as favorite; LEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAIR UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2
LEM UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAIRlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
LEMlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FAIR 1–0 LEMFAIR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · FAIR 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 30, 2023-24	LEM 72 @ FAIR 78	FAIR -9.5	LEM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fairfield

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PSU	L 68-76	+15.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NJIT	W 74-53	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 10	@HALL	L 59-82	+14.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 14	vsSTO	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 16	vsL-MD	W 85-82	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

+7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

+14.5

HALL

L 59-82

−8.5

STO

W 73-71

−4.5

L-MD

W 85-82

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

−7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

−18.5

HALL

L 59-82

+3.5

STO

W 73-71

+0.5

L-MD

W 85-82

+31.5

over 3under 2avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Le Moyne

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@XAV	L 69-74	+24.5	W +19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 9	@BGSU	L 60-83	+11.5	L −11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 13	@MASS	L 80-94	+16.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsNIA	W 74-68	-2.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 69-74

+19.5

BGSU

L 60-83

−11.5

MASS

L 80-94

+2.5

NIA

W 74-68

+3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 69-74

−13.5

BGSU

L 60-83

−11.5

MASS

L 80-94

+20.5

NIA

W 74-68

+3.5

over 2under 2avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Fairfield Stags at Le Moyne Dolphins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Fairfield

Le Moyne

Fairfield

Le Moyne