Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Fairfield Stags: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 2:00 PM ETLeo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield

#314L-MDLoyola MD82final

Final

#239FAIRFairfield85▲ winner

Closing lineFAIR -5.5✓ L-MD covered by 2.5

Closing total135.5Over by 31.5

Season records: Loyola MD and Fairfield
L-MD	This season	FAIR
1-2	Record	2-2
1-2	ATS	2-2
0-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: L-MD 68–73 FAIR · ✓ FAIR (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
L-MD	32	50	82
FAIR	40	45	85

1st half: L-MD 32, FAIR 40 (FAIR by 8). The model had FAIR by 2.6 and a total of 66.3 (actual 72).

Team stats

L-MD		FAIR
32-56 57%	Field goals	34-69 49%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	6-21 29%
12-16 75%	Free throws	11-19 58%
31 5 off	Rebounds	35 14 off
11	Assists	14
4	Steals	6
5	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	7
15	Fouls	15
44	Points in paint	44
9	Fast-break points	7

Players

L-MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Stiemke G	35	7	7	2	2-7	2-6
Jacob Theodosiou G	33	27	5	6	10-15	0-2
Braeden Speed G	31	16	4	2	7-10	0-3
Sam Springer F	27	13	2	0	5-6	1-2
Everett Barnes F	9	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Jonas Sirtautas F	28	10	7	0	5-6	0-0
Tyson Commander G	16	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Troy Cicero Jr. G	10	6	1	0	2-6	2-4
Sebastien Emenalo F	9	3	1	0	1-4	1-4
Carter Berg-McLean G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Emmett Adair, Ben Menker, Goap Kodi, Peter Sposito, Garrett Brennan

FAIR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eric Mejia G	33	14	5	2	5-8	0-1
Deuce Turner G	33	30	2	2	12-17	4-8
Declan Wucherpfennig G	33	8	5	3	3-6	0-1
Braden Sparks G	31	14	7	6	5-15	2-6
Brandon Benjamin F	30	13	8	1	6-9	0-0
Bench
Halon Rawlins G	10	0	0	0	0-5	0-3
Isaac Munkadi F	10	4	1	0	2-3	0-0
Tony Williams G	9	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Michael Rogan G	7	2	0	0	1-3	0-1
Nasir Rodriguez G	4	0	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Aidan May, Tanner Ostop, Peyton Smith, Joe Ganton, Luke Davidson, Matt Curtis, Cam Estevez, Ryan Zan, Noah Best

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FAIR -5.5	FAIR -4.6	L-MD +0.9	W L-MD covered
Total	135.5	141.4	Over 5.9	W Over
Projected score	—	L-MD 68.4 · FAIR 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FAIR -2.6	FAIR -8.0
1H total	66.3	72
1H projected score	L-MD 31.8 · FAIR 34.4	L-MD 32 · FAIR 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
L-MD LLW	1-2	33%	—	0-1
FAIR WWLL	2-2	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: L-MD away, as underdog; FAIR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
L-MD UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
FAIR UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
L-MDlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%
FAIRlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

L-MD 1–0 FAIRL-MD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · L-MD 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 28, 2021-22	L-MD 75 @ FAIR 70	FAIR -7.5	L-MD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola MD

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

over 0under 3avg −9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fairfield

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PSU	L 68-76	+15.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NJIT	W 74-53	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 10	@HALL	L 59-82	+14.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 14	vsSTO	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

+7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

+14.5

HALL

L 59-82

−8.5

STO

W 73-71

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

−7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

−18.5

HALL

L 59-82

+3.5

STO

W 73-71

+0.5

over 2under 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Fairfield Stags

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola MD

Fairfield

Loyola MD

Fairfield