UMass Lowell River Hawks at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 2:00 PM ETLJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest

Final

#89WAKEWake Forest109▲ winner

Closing lineWAKE -30.5✓ WAKE covered by 3.5

Closing total165.5Over by 18.5

Season records: UMass Lowell and Wake Forest
UML	This season	WAKE
0-3	Record	2-1
0-3	ATS	1-2
2-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UML 67–90 WAKE · ✓ WAKE (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UML	38	37	75
WAKE	48	61	109

1st half: UML 38, WAKE 48 (WAKE by 10). The model had WAKE by 13.9 and a total of 73.5 (actual 86).

Team stats

UML		WAKE
28-61 46%	Field goals	38-68 56%
6-22 27%	3-pointers	13-30 43%
13-18 72%	Free throws	20-24 83%
30 9 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
13	Assists	19
3	Steals	14
2	Blocks	4
15	Turnovers	7
18	Fouls	17
38	Points in paint	42
4	Fast-break points	17

Players

UML	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xavier Spencer G	34	6	2	3	3-7	0-2
Jared Frey G	27	3	3	4	1-8	1-8
Austin Green F	26	10	7	2	4-7	0-0
Darrel Yepdo G	22	6	2	1	2-4	2-4
Shawn Simmons II F	11	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
JJ Massaquoi F	23	26	6	0	11-15	0-0
Khalil Farmer G	23	10	2	0	3-9	2-5
Victor Okojie F	12	5	0	1	2-4	1-2
Angel Montas Jr. G	8	2	0	2	1-1	0-0
Jerrell Roberson II F	6	0	3	0	0-3	0-0
Isaiah Walter G	4	3	1	0	0-0	0-0
Kris Johnson G	2	2	0	0	0-1	0-1
Keenan Bey F	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

WAKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Juke Harris G	26	21	6	2	8-14	1-5
Omaha Biliew F	25	13	4	0	4-4	3-3
Nate Calmese G	24	15	6	7	5-6	3-4
Tre'Von Spillers F	22	21	5	1	8-9	0-0
Mekhi Mason G	20	7	2	1	1-9	1-6
Bench
Myles Colvin G	24	13	2	1	5-10	3-6
Cooper Schwieger F	16	2	2	2	1-2	0-0
Marqus Marion F	13	3	2	3	1-1	0-0
Isaac Carr G	10	5	1	2	2-4	1-2
Jaylen Cross G	8	4	3	0	1-3	0-0
Sebastian Akins G	6	5	0	0	2-4	1-2
Vincent Ricchiuti F	2	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Anson Beard Jr. G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Will Underwood G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dimitrije Kovacevic, Owen Kmety

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WAKE -30.5	WAKE -23.3	UML +7.2	L WAKE covered
Total	165.5	157.0	Under 8.5	L Over
Projected score	—	UML 66.9 · WAKE 90.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WAKE -13.9	WAKE -10.0
1H total	73.5	86
1H projected score	UML 29.8 · WAKE 43.7	UML 38 · WAKE 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UML LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2
WAKE LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: UML away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UML OUO	2-1	67%	0-3
WAKE OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UMLlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%
WAKElast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMass Lowell

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −14.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@CONN	L 47-110	+36.5	L −26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsNHVN	L 67-73	-10.5	L −16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 13	@COLU	L 72-86	+13.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

−26.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−16.5

COLU

L 72-86

−0.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

+5.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−2.5

COLU

L 72-86

+1.5

over 2under 1avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wake Forest

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAMER	W 88-74	-19.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMORE	W 81-65	-22.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 11	vsMICH	L 84-85	+15.5	W +14.5	168.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

−5.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+14.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

W 88-74

+22.5

W 81-65

−6.5

MICH

L 84-85

+0.5

over 2under 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UMass Lowell River Hawks at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UMass Lowell

Wake Forest

UMass Lowell

Wake Forest