Navy Midshipmen vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 4:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · Neutral site

#199NAVYNavy84▲ winner

Final

Closing lineNAVY -10.5✓ NAVY covered by 22.5

Closing total153.5Under by 18.5

Season records: Navy and Gardner-Webb
NAVY	This season	GWEB
2-3	Record	0-5
3-2	ATS	2-3
2-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NAVY 83–70 GWEB · ✓ NAVY (87%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NAVY	41	43	84
GWEB	29	22	51

1st half: NAVY 41, GWEB 29 (NAVY by 12). The model had NAVY by 8.0 and a total of 72.0 (actual 70).

Team stats

NAVY		GWEB
29-57 51%	Field goals	19-51 37%
11-24 46%	3-pointers	4-25 16%
15-18 83%	Free throws	9-12 75%
40 13 off	Rebounds	23 6 off
20	Assists	8
6	Steals	7
4	Blocks	3
14	Turnovers	16
12	Fouls	17
34	Points in paint	26
4	Fast-break points	11

Players

NAVY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aidan Kehoe C	35	20	14	2	9-13	0-0
Austin Benigni G	34	12	3	6	5-13	0-2
Jinwoo Kim G	32	11	4	2	4-9	3-6
Donovan Draper F	30	4	10	5	1-2	0-1
Mike Woods F	26	17	5	1	4-8	3-4
Bench
Jordan Pennick G	18	9	2	0	3-7	3-7
Cam Cole G	11	3	0	1	0-2	0-2
Cam Cormany G	3	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Jerry Ashley Jr. F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
David Burnett G	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Sam Krist G	2	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Nyles Howard G	2	0	0	2	0-0	0-0
Julian Gabbidon G	1	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Colin Pollock, Steven McLeod, Tobi Raji, Matt Gaffney, Jordan McConnell, Luke Morgan, C.J. Kearns, Owen Gray, Cooper Jackson, Davyn de Jongh, Julien King, Reiss Whitaker

GWEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Colin Hawkins G	32	3	2	1	1-6	0-1
Spence Sims G	29	4	2	4	2-5	0-2
Jacob Hogarth F	22	11	2	1	4-6	0-1
Ace Talbert G	19	5	1	1	2-6	1-5
Curtis Williams III G	18	2	3	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
Jacob Hudson G	26	11	3	0	4-7	0-1
Julius Clark G	17	2	2	1	0-1	0-1
NaVuan Peterson F	16	6	1	0	2-8	2-8
DJ Jefferson G	11	5	2	0	2-5	1-4
Jamias Ferere G	8	2	0	0	1-3	0-1
Ahmadou Ndiaye G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ashton King, Riek Riek, Cameron Gales, Isaiah Hicks, Paul Lindberg

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NAVY -10.5	NAVY -12.9	NAVY +2.4	W NAVY covered
Total	153.5	153.7	Over 0.2	L Under
Projected score	—	NAVY 83.3 · GWEB 70.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NAVY -8.0	NAVY -12.0
1H total	72.0	70
1H projected score	NAVY 40 · GWEB 32	NAVY 41 · GWEB 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NAVY WLWWL	3-2	60%	—	1-1
GWEB WLWLL	2-3	40%	—	2-3

Venue/role: NAVY neutral site, as favorite; GWEB neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY UOUUO	2-3	40%	2-3
GWEB UOOUO	3-2	60%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVYlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
GWEBlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Navy

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PRES	W 76-55	-3.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 7	vsYALE	L 68-97	+5.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@PSU	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 18	@UNC	L 61-73	+26.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsNJIT	W 86-70	-17.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

+17.5

YALE

L 68-97

−23.5

PSU

L 71-80

+2.5

UNC

L 61-73

+14.5

NJIT

W 86-70

−1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

−10.5

YALE

L 68-97

+17.5

PSU

L 71-80

−4.5

UNC

L 61-73

−26.5

NJIT

W 86-70

+15.5

over 2under 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gardner-Webb

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

over 3under 2avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Navy Midshipmen vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Navy

Gardner-Webb

Navy

Gardner-Webb