Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
Closing line
UNC -26.5✓ NAVY covered by 14.5
UNC -26.5✓ NAVY covered by 14.5Closing total160.5Under by 26.5
 NAVY | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NAVY 67–88 UNC · ✓ UNC (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 31 | 30 | 61 |
| UNC | 38 | 35 | 73 |
1st half: NAVY 31, UNC 38 (UNC by 7). The model had UNC by 12.7 and a total of 72.3 (actual 69).
Team stats
| NAVY | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-69 30% | Field goals | 24-56 43% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 8-23 35% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 17-22 77% |
| 38 13 off | Rebounds | 45 9 off |
| 10 | Assists | 15 |
| 8 | Steals | 4 |
| 5 | Blocks | 7 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| NAVY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Benigni G | 39 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 5-20 | 3-4 |
| Aidan Kehoe C | 33 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| Donovan Draper F | 32 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2-10 | 0-4 |
| Mike Woods F | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Jinwoo Kim G | 28 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 5-17 | 2-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Pennick G | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Cam Cole G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| David Burnett G | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cooper Jackson F | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Steven McLeod, Jerry Ashley Jr., Colin Pollock, Matt Gaffney, Jordan McConnell, Owen Gray, Luke Morgan, C.J. Kearns, Tobi Raji, Davyn de Jongh, Julien King, Nyles Howard and 4 more
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarin Stevenson F | 34 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 33 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 4-10 | 3-6 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 31 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-2 |
| Kyan Evans G | 30 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 1-9 | 1-8 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 27 | 23 | 12 | 1 | 9-13 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Derek Dixon G | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-3 |
| Zayden High F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| James Brown C | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaydon Young G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Denis G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Smith, Ivan Matlekovic, John Holbrook, Elijah Davis, Seth Trimble
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -24.5
2 → UNC
CloseUNC -26.5
2 pts toward UNC
Total
Open159.5
▲ 1
Close160.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NAVY +3000 · UNC -20000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -24.5 · closed UNC -26.5 · moved 2 toward UNCmodel UNC -21.5
model UNC -21.5
Opened 159.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 1 upmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNC -26.5 | UNC -21.3 | NAVY +5.2 | W NAVY covered |
| Total | 160.5 | 154.4 | Under 6.1 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | NAVY 66.6 · UNC 87.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UNC -12.7 | UNC -7.0 |
| 1H total | 72.3 | 69 |
| 1H projected score | NAVY 29.8 · UNC 42.5 | NAVY 31 · UNC 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVYlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% |
| UNClast 4 | 4-0 100% | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Navy
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
PRES
PRESW 76-55
+17.5
7
vs
YALE
YALEL 68-97
−23.5
11
@
PSU
PSUL 71-80
+2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PRES
PRESW 76-55
−10.5
7
vsYALE
YALEL 68-97
+17.5
11
@PSU
PSUL 71-80
−4.5
over 1under 2avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vs
KU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vs
RAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vs
NCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
over 2under 2avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Navy
1-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Penn State71–80
- Lvs Yale68–97
- W@ Presbyterian76–55
A week or more of rest.
North Carolina
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs NC Central97–53
- Wvs Radford89–74
- Wvs Kansas87–74
- Wvs C Arkansas94–54
4 days since their last game.