North Carolina Central Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 9:00 PM ETDean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina

#357NCCUNC Central53final

Final

#44UNCNorth Carolina AP #1897▲ winner

Closing lineUNC -34.5✓ UNC covered by 9.5

Closing total159.5Under by 9.5

Season records: NC Central and North Carolina
NCCU	This season	UNC
0-3	Record	3-0
1-2	ATS	2-1
1-2	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NCCU 63–95 UNC · ✓ UNC (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NCCU	24	29	53
UNC	39	58	97

1st half: NCCU 24, UNC 39 (UNC by 15). The model had UNC by 18.9 and a total of 74.1 (actual 63).

Team stats

NCCU		UNC
16-66 24%	Field goals	30-55 55%
7-26 27%	3-pointers	11-28 39%
14-20 70%	Free throws	26-35 74%
30 14 off	Rebounds	51 12 off
10	Assists	21
6	Steals	1
2	Blocks	14
9	Turnovers	10
21	Fouls	15
12	Points in paint	36
0	Fast-break points	13

Players

NCCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Gage Lattimore G	38	12	2	3	4-19	4-12
Dionte Johnson G	21	0	4	3	0-3	0-0
Khouri Carvey F	17	6	3	0	3-7	0-1
Kyric Davis G	10	0	0	1	0-4	0-1
Jonathan Dunn F	6	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Ramondo Battle II F	25	14	3	0	4-8	2-4
Kelechi Okworogwo F	24	3	7	0	1-7	0-2
Tekao Carpenter G	24	6	2	1	1-5	1-4
Ryan Archey G	15	6	0	2	3-6	0-0
Jae Slack G	11	4	0	0	0-2	0-1
Justin Edwards G	4	2	0	0	0-1	0-0
Gbenga Olubi F	2	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Camren Daniels G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Caleb Ellison G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Khalil Arnold

UNC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Caleb Wilson F	29	21	13	3	7-8	1-1
Kyan Evans G	27	7	3	7	2-5	1-3
Luka Bogavac G	25	13	2	2	4-7	2-5
Henri Veesaar C	24	12	11	2	4-5	0-0
Jarin Stevenson F	21	5	3	1	2-6	1-4
Bench
Jonathan Powell G	19	9	4	1	2-6	2-6
Derek Dixon G	16	9	3	3	3-5	3-5
Zayden High F	14	11	2	1	3-7	0-1
James Brown C	6	1	3	1	0-0	0-0
Jaydon Young G	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Isaiah Denis G	6	5	3	0	2-2	1-1
Evan Smith G	2	3	1	0	1-1	0-0
John Holbrook F	2	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Elijah Davis G	2	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Ivan Matlekovic C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Seth Trimble

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNC -34.5	UNC -31.4	NCCU +3.1	L UNC covered
Total	159.5	158.3	Under 1.2	W Under
Projected score	—	NCCU 63.4 · UNC 94.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNC -18.9	UNC -15.0
1H total	74.1	63
1H projected score	NCCU 27.6 · UNC 46.5	NCCU 24 · UNC 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCCU LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
UNC WWL	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: NCCU away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCCU OUU	1-2	33%	0-3
UNC UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCCUlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
UNClast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC Central

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NCSU	L 66-114	+31.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	@UVA	L 62-81	+34.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 9	@APP	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

−16.5

UVA

L 62-81

+15.5

APP

L 54-76

−11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

+34.5

UVA

L 62-81

−8.5

APP

L 54-76

−6.5

over 1under 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Carolina

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCARK	W 94-54	-31.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 7	vsKU	W 87-74	-2.5	W +10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsRAD	W 89-74	-20.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

+8.5

W 87-74

+10.5

RAD

W 89-74

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

−9.5

W 87-74

+1.5

RAD

W 89-74

+0.5

over 2under 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Carolina Central Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

NC Central

North Carolina

NC Central

North Carolina