State Farm Center · at Illinois
Closing line
ILL -30.5✓ COLG covered by 11.5
ILL -30.5✓ COLG covered by 11.5Closing total164.5Under by 15.5
 COLG | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | O/U | 2-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: COLG 67–96 ILL · ✓ ILL (100%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLG | 30 | 35 | 65 |
| ILL | 41 | 43 | 84 |
1st half: COLG 30, ILL 41 (ILL by 11). The model had ILL by 17.7 and a total of 76.2 (actual 71).
Team stats
| COLG | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-62 42% | Field goals | 26-69 38% |
| 5-19 26% | 3-pointers | 11-37 30% |
| 8-9 89% | Free throws | 21-24 88% |
| 29 6 off | Rebounds | 49 19 off |
| 9 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 3 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| COLG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Cox G | 33 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 5-12 | 0-2 |
| Andrew Alekseyenko F | 30 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 8-16 | 1-3 |
| Brady Cummins G | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-2 |
| Sam Wright F | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Ben Tweedy G | 22 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Josh Ahayere G | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Kyle Carlesimo G | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Ayomi Odetoyinbo F | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Cooper Wright F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ethan Brown F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jonathan Niv, Charlie Pugh, Blake Forrest, Cameron Brennan, Stevie Clark, Parker Jones
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Mirkovic F | 38 | 27 | 21 | 3 | 8-16 | 3-7 |
| Keaton Wagler G | 34 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 4-11 | 2-6 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 31 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 5-16 | 1-6 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 27 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-11 | 1-6 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jake Davis F | 24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 23 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Jason Jakstys C | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Rodgers, Mihailo Petrovic, Blake Fagbemi, Brandon Lee, AJ Redd, Tomislav Ivisic
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -30.5
ModelILL -29.5
Model edgeCOLG +1.0
W COLG covered
Total
Market164.5
Model162.7
Model edgeUnder 1.8
W Under
Projected score
COLG 66.6 · ILL 96.1
COLG 65 · ILL 84
Win probability
ILL 100%
1st half
Spread
ILL -17.7
ILL -11.0
Total
76.2
71 points
Projected score
COLG 29.2 · ILL 46.9
COLG 30 · ILL 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -29.5
1 → ILL
CloseILL -30.5
1 pt toward ILL
Total
Open163.5
▲ 1
Close164.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -29.5 · closed ILL -30.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -29.5
model ILL -29.5
Opened 163.5 · closed 164.5 · moved 1 upmodel 162.5
model 162.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLGlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% |
| ILLlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
COLG 0–1 ILLILL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · COLG 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2023-24 | COLG 57 @ ILL 74 | ILL -16.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Colgate
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
MSU
MSUL 69-80
+11.5
7
vs
NE
NEL 65-68
−8.5
11
vs
DREX
DREXW 90-83
+3.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MSU
MSUL 69-80
+4.5
7
vsNE
NEL 65-68
−14.5
11
vsDREX
DREXW 90-83
+29.5
over 2under 1avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-0
100% covers · avg +14.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
JKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vs
FGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vs
TTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
over 2under 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Colgate
1-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Drexel90–83
- Lvs Northeastern65–68
- L@ Michigan St69–80
3 days since their last game.
Illinois
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas Tech81–77
- Wvs FGCU113–70
- Wvs Jackson St113–55
3 days since their last game.