1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. UMBC @ GMU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

UMBC Retrievers at George Mason Patriots

EagleBank Arena · at George Mason
#264UMBCUMBC
@
#93GMUGeorge Mason
LineGMU -17.5moved 1 toward GMU
Total146.5down 1 from 147.5
UMBCThis seasonGMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 81–63 · win probability GMU 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
GMU -17.5
moved 1 toward GMU
Total
146.5
model 144.3 · Under by 2
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
72% UMBC
70% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

UMBC 1, GMU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UMBC has played the 342nd-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GMUBig
UMBC offense vs GMU defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings
GMUBig
GMU offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
UMBCSmall
Three-pointers
UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 38.8% and 35.2% of their shots
GMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMBC 24.9%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: UMBC 74.2%, GMU 71.7%
GMUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMBC 34.1, GMU 41.1. Allowed: UMBC 25.7, GMU 28.9
GMUSmall
Home court
GMU at home. This season: GMU 0-0 at home, UMBC 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: UMBC plays 67.0 a game (278th fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMBC 14.1%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: UMBC 15.1%, GMU 15.5%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMBC 11%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: UMBC 2, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 15 to 19.599394%48%52%
Non-conference games at this spread63293%49%53%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward GMU
Total
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
UMBC +1200 · GMU -2500
Line movement
Median of 6 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened GMU -16.5 · now GMU -17.5 · moved 1 toward GMUmodel GMU -17.5 matches the line
Opened 147.5 · now 146.5 · moved 1.5 downmodel 144.5
Nov 1line modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
UMBC +17.5SpreadGMU -17.5
Bets
Money
Over 146.5TotalUnder 146.5
Bets
Money
UMBCWinnerGMU
Bets
Money
Money leans UMBC · 45 pts more of the money than of the bets
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
UMBCGMUOverUnderUMBCGMU
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-17.5-110+17.5-110146-110146-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-17.5-118+17.5-107147.5-109147.5-117+950-2500
BovadaBovada-17.5-110+17.5-110146-110146-110——
DraftKingsDK-17.5-105+17.5-115146.5-108146.5-112+1200-2400
FanDuelFD-17.5-110+17.5-110147.5-110147.5-110+1280-3500
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-17.5-106+17.5-106146-108146-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadGMU -17.5GMU -17.7GMU +0.2
Total146.5144.3Under 2.2
Projected score—UMBC 63.3 · GMU 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGMU -10.4—
1H total67.5—
1H projected scoreUMBC 28.5 · GMU 39—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: UMBC 0, George Mason 3, even 2
UMBCBetterGeorge Mason
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
GMUSmall
G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
GMUBig
G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
GMUBig
F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74
UMBCBetterGeorge Mason
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
GMUBig
GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
GMUBig
GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
GMUBig
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
GMUBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUMBC betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
George Mason
Guards
B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min
Forwards
E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew
Centers
J. Nnaji8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMBCGMU
Scoring
75.7 #149Points per game72.9 #227
1.13 #85Points per possession1.13 #93
67.0 #278Pace (possessions)64.7 #351
Shooting
54.1 #64Effective FG%52.7 #113
36.1 #553-point %33.3 #214
38.8 #1953-point attempt rate35.2 #270
34.1 #205Free throw rate41.1 #44
Possessions
14.1 #25Turnover rate15.8 #121
24.9 #342Offensive rebound rate31.3 #149
11.9 #291Assists per game12.6 #243
Defense
68.5 #41Points allowed68.0 #31
1.02 #46Points allowed per possession1.05 #89
49.4 #79Opponent effective FG%49.5 #83
32.7 #98Opponent 3-point %32.6 #91
15.1 #283Turnovers forced15.5 #254
74.2 #18Defensive rebound rate71.7 #79
4.9 #338Steals per game5.0 #334
2.4 #314Blocks per game3.0 #228
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Liberty71–77
  • Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
  • Wvs Saint Louis86–57
  • L@ VCU65–70
  • Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.