Buffalo Bulls at UMBC Retrievers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 9, 5:00 PM ETChesapeake Employers Insurance Arena · at UMBC

#237BUFBuffalo83▲ winner

Final

#264UMBCUMBC79final

Closing lineBUF -3.5✓ BUF covered by 0.5

Closing total145.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Buffalo and UMBC
BUF	This season	UMBC
7-1	Record	4-3
6-2	ATS	4-3
4-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BUF 75–76 UMBC · ✗ UMBC (54%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BUF	39	44	83
UMBC	43	36	79

1st half: BUF 39, UMBC 43 (UMBC by 4). The model had UMBC by 0.6 and a total of 70.8 (actual 82).

Team stats

BUF		UMBC
30-55 55%	Field goals	31-59 53%
7-17 41%	3-pointers	9-26 35%
16-18 89%	Free throws	8-8 100%
27 8 off	Rebounds	25 7 off
13	Assists	15
10	Steals	4
0	Blocks	0
10	Turnovers	11
10	Fouls	15
40	Points in paint	36
11	Fast-break points	10

Players

BUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Sabol G	34	11	1	4	5-10	1-3
Noah Batchelor G	31	5	4	2	2-4	1-3
Angelo Brizzi G	29	4	3	0	1-5	0-2
Daniel Freitag G	29	17	6	2	4-12	2-3
Tim Oboh F	21	19	4	0	8-10	0-0
Bench
Derrick Talton Jr. G	18	6	2	3	2-3	0-1
Mikhali Pocknett F	16	8	3	1	3-3	0-0
Ezra McKenna F	15	13	2	1	5-8	3-5
Kyle Jones G	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic

UMBC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ace Valentine G	36	15	1	6	5-11	3-6
DJ Armstrong Jr. G	35	10	2	3	3-9	2-8
Jah'Likai King G	31	19	1	3	8-15	1-5
Josh Odunowo F	30	8	7	0	4-5	0-0
Riley Jacobs F	16	2	3	1	1-3	0-0
Bench
Caden Diggs F	24	19	2	1	7-9	3-4
Jose Roberto Tanchyn F	10	6	4	0	3-6	0-2
Daylon Dickerson F	9	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Cougar Downing G	9	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Paul Greene, Saahil Thakkar, Jake Stout, Tim Eze, Regimantas Ciunys, Devin Ceaser

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BUF -3.5	UMBC -1.2	UMBC +4.7	L BUF covered
Total	145.5	151.1	Over 5.6	W Over
Projected score	—	BUF 75 · UMBC 76.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UMBC -0.6	UMBC -4.0
1H total	70.8	82
1H projected score	BUF 35.1 · UMBC 35.7	BUF 39 · UMBC 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLWL	6-2	75%	2-0	4-1
UMBC LLWWW	4-3	57%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; UMBC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUUO	4-4	50%	7-1
UMBC OUUOU	2-5	29%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFlast 8	7-1 88%	6-2 75%	4-4 50%
UMBClast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Buffalo

8 games played

Straight up

7-1

88% wins

Against the spread

6-2

75% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-188%

W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-275%

W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

O O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSM	W 85-79	-3.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 7	vsGB	W 83-76	-3.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 11	@DEP	W 66-53	+18.5	W +31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 18	vsUVM	W 94-90	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsVMI	W 78-70	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBUCK	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 29	@CAN	W 71-53	-9.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsSBU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+2.5

W 83-76

+3.5

DEP

W 66-53

+31.5

UVM

W 94-90

+5.5

VMI

W 78-70

+2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

+8.5

SBU

L 69-77

−2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+10.5

W 83-76

+11.5

DEP

W 66-53

−34.5

UVM

W 94-90

+42.5

VMI

W 78-70

−2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

−15.5

SBU

L 69-77

+1.5

over 4under 4avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

UMBC

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@DAY	L 71-77	+25.5	W +19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@MORG	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 16	vsWAG	W 71-70	-6.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 19	@GW	L 52-89	+22.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsDSU	W 71-57	-13.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 128
Dec 3	@GTWN	L 81-90	+19.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 171
Dec 6	@BUCK	W 73-66	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 71-77

+19.5

MORG

W 81-79

−2.5

WAG

W 71-70

−5.5

L 52-89

−14.5

DSU

W 71-57

+0.5

GTWN

L 81-90

+10.5

BUCK

W 73-66

+8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 71-77

−6.5

MORG

W 81-79

−2.5

WAG

W 71-70

+0.5

L 52-89

−19.5

DSU

W 71-57

−10.5

GTWN

L 81-90

+21.5

BUCK

W 73-66

−4.5

over 2under 5avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Buffalo @ UMBC

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Buffalo

UMBC

Buffalo

UMBC