Suncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
BUF -4.5✓ BUCK covered by 2.5
BUF -4.5✓ BUCK covered by 2.5Closing total146.5Under by 2.5
| BUF | This season | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-5 |
| 5-0 | ATS | 3-4 |
| 3-2 | O/U | 1-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 75–73 BUCK · ✓ BUF (59%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 45 | 28 | 73 |
| BUCK | 32 | 39 | 71 |
1st half: BUF 45, BUCK 32 (BUF by 13). The model had BUF by 1.7 and a total of 69.3 (actual 77).
Team stats
| BUF | BUCK | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-54 44% | Field goals | 27-57 47% |
| 11-28 39% | 3-pointers | 10-27 37% |
| 14-19 74% | Free throws | 7-12 58% |
| 29 10 off | Rebounds | 35 13 off |
| 11 | Assists | 16 |
| 9 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Freitag G | 38 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6-15 | 4-9 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 37 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 6-9 | 3-6 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 37 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4-7 | 3-6 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 35 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-5 |
| Tim Oboh F | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 16 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Jones G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Daniel Shao, Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
| BUCK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achile Spadone G | 34 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Brandon McCreesh G | 34 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 7-13 | 6-10 |
| Amon Dorries C | 31 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 6-11 | 1-3 |
| Jayden Williams G | 30 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0-8 | 0-4 |
| Grgur Brcic F | 21 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Pat Curtin G | 23 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Josh Fulton G | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Quin Berger G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Aleksander Pachucki G | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Brady Muller, Jacob Meachem, Kellen Welch, Matt Lange, Ruot Bijiek, Patrick O'Brien
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBUF -4.5
ModelBUF -2.6
Model edgeBUCK +1.9
W BUCK covered
Total
Market146.5
Model147.8
Model edgeOver 1.3
L Under
Projected score
BUF 75.2 · BUCK 72.6
BUF 73 · BUCK 71
Win probability
BUF 59%
1st half
Spread
BUF -1.7
BUF -13.0
Total
69.3
77 points
Projected score
BUF 35.5 · BUCK 33.8
BUF 45 · BUCK 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -3.5
1 → BUF
CloseBUF -4.5
1 pt toward BUF
Total
Open146.5
no move
Close146.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
BUF -218 · BUCK +180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -3.5 · closed BUF -4.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -2.5
model BUF -2.5
Opened 146.5 · unchangedmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUFlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 5-0 100% | 3-2 60% |
| BUCKlast 7 | 2-5 29% | 3-4 43% | 1-6 14% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
5-0
100% covers · avg +9.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
USM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vs
GB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@
DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vs
UVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vs
VMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
covered 5didn’t cover 0avg +9.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
over 3under 2avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bucknell
7 games played
Straight up
2-5
29% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-6
14% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
DEL
DELW 78-70
+5.5
7
@
MSM
MSMW 73-62
+12.5
11
@
PRIN
PRINL 63-73
−5.5
14
vs
HOF
HOFL 77-83
−1.5
17
@
PITT
PITTL 50-84
−17.5
20
@
SJU
SJUL 49-97
−19.5
24
vs
BGSU
BGSUL 66-71
+5.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsDEL
DELW 78-70
−1.5
7
@MSM
MSMW 73-62
−8.5
11
@PRIN
PRINL 63-73
−10.5
14
vsHOF
HOFL 77-83
+20.5
17
@PITT
PITTL 50-84
−7.5
20
@SJU
SJUL 49-97
−12.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-71
−7.5
over 1under 6avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
5-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs VMI78–70
- Wvs Vermont94–90
- W@ DePaul66–53
- Wvs Green Bay83–76
- Wvs Southern Miss85–79
2 days since their last game.
Bucknell
2-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Bowling Green66–71
- L@ St John's49–97
- L@ Pitt50–84
- Lvs Hofstra77–83
- L@ Princeton63–73
2 days since their last game.