Broadview Arena · at Buffalo
Closing line
UVM -1.5✓ BUF covered by 5.5
UVM -1.5✓ BUF covered by 5.5Closing total141.5Over by 42.5
| UVM | This season | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 3-0 |
| 2-0 | O/U | 2-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVM 75–73 BUF · ✗ UVM (58%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVM | 43 | 47 | 90 |
| BUF | 40 | 54 | 94 |
1st half: UVM 43, BUF 40 (UVM by 3). The model had UVM by 1.5 and a total of 69.3 (actual 83).
Team stats
| UVM | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-55 55% | Field goals | 27-53 51% |
| 12-25 48% | 3-pointers | 9-23 39% |
| 18-22 82% | Free throws | 31-37 84% |
| 30 5 off | Rebounds | 28 6 off |
| 23 | Assists | 15 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 26 | Fouls | 19 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| UVM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Hurley G | 33 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 6-10 | 4-7 |
| TJ Long G | 25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Gus Yalden F | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 7-11 | 2-3 |
| Lucas Mari G | 19 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Noah Barnett F | 18 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sean Blake G | 30 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 9-12 | 2-2 |
| Jackson Skipper F | 24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Momo Nkugwa G | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Ben Johnson G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Benjamin Michaels F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| David Simon F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chris Kuzemka, Sincere Clemons, Drew Bessette, Ben Wesson, Trey Woodyard
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Freitag G | 38 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 10-20 | 4-9 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 35 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 3-12 | 1-5 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 29 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 27 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-1 |
| Tim Oboh F | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ezra McKenna F | 23 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 19 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Jones G | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVM -2.5
1 → BUF
CloseUVM -1.5
1 pt toward BUF
Total
Open142.5
▼ 1
Close141.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
UVM -135 · BUF +115
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVM -2.5 · closed UVM -1.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel UVM -2.5
model UVM -2.5
Opened 142.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 1 downmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UVM -1.5 | UVM -2.3 | UVM +0.8 | L BUF covered |
| Total | 141.5 | 147.9 | Over 6.4 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | UVM 75.1 · BUF 72.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UVM -1.5 | UVM -3.0 |
| 1H total | 69.3 | 83 |
| 1H projected score | UVM 35.4 · BUF 33.9 | UVM 43 · BUF 40 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVMlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% | 2-0 100% |
| BUFlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UVM 1–0 BUFUVM leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UVM 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024-25 | BUF 67 @ UVM 78 | UVM -17.5 | BUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Vermont
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-0
100% overs · avg +33 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@
BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
−0.5
15
@
NE
NEW 85-74
+12.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
+41.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+24.5
over 2under 0avg +33 ptslonger = bigger margin
Buffalo
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-0
100% covers · avg +12.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg −4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
USM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vs
GB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@
DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
over 2under 1avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Vermont
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Northeastern85–74
- W@ Brown89–84
3 days since their last game.
Buffalo
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ DePaul66–53
- Wvs Green Bay83–76
- Wvs Southern Miss85–79
A week or more of rest.