American University Eagles at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 6:30 PM ETJersey Mike’s Arena · at Rutgers

#153AMERAmerican71final

Final

#62RUTGRutgers80▲ winner

Closing lineRUTG -16.5✓ AMER covered by 7.5

Closing total143.5Over by 7.5

Season records: American and Rutgers
AMER	This season	RUTG
1-2	Record	3-0
2-1	ATS	1-2
3-0	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: AMER 67–84 RUTG · ✓ RUTG (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
AMER	33	38	71
RUTG	33	47	80

1st half: AMER 33, RUTG 33 (tied). The model had RUTG by 9.9 and a total of 71.0 (actual 66).

Team stats

AMER		RUTG
24-68 35%	Field goals	25-53 47%
12-32 38%	3-pointers	6-15 40%
11-14 79%	Free throws	24-30 80%
32 11 off	Rebounds	42 9 off
13	Assists	12
5	Steals	1
1	Blocks	6
8	Turnovers	11
21	Fouls	18
24	Points in paint	34
9	Fast-break points	21

Players

AMER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greg Jones F	35	11	1	4	5-14	0-1
Wyatt Nausadis G	31	11	3	2	3-9	2-5
Julen Iturbe F	26	7	2	2	2-12	1-6
Geoff Sprouse G	26	8	5	2	3-8	2-6
Matt Mayock F	15	6	2	0	2-4	2-4
Bench
Kade Sebastian G	22	8	1	2	2-3	2-3
Madden Collins G	21	16	5	0	5-9	3-5
Chris Eagan F	14	4	1	0	2-6	0-0
Dean Hogans G	10	0	1	1	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Shane O'Reilly, Eric Michaels, Adrian Samuels, Noah Jones, Kamran Prince, Jack Anderson, Matthew Casey, Carson McDonald, Luke Brown, Gibraltar Coleman

RUTG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamichael Davis G	35	5	3	5	1-5	0-1
Dylan Grant F	30	22	11	0	7-12	1-1
Denis Badalau F	25	10	1	1	4-8	2-3
Tariq Francis G	24	19	5	4	6-13	2-7
Emmanuel Ogbole C	16	4	4	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Darren Buchanan Jr. G	20	10	2	1	2-6	0-1
Bryce Ruglass Dortch F	14	0	5	0	0-0	0-0
Lino Mark G	11	2	0	0	1-3	0-0
Baye Fall C	9	2	5	0	1-1	0-0
Chris Nwuli F	9	2	0	0	0-1	0-0
Harun Zrno G	7	4	0	1	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Kaden Powers, Gevonte Ware, Dorian Jones, Max Fradkin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	RUTG -16.5	RUTG -16.7	RUTG +0.2	L AMER covered
Total	143.5	151.5	Over 8.0	W Over
Projected score	—	AMER 67.4 · RUTG 84.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RUTG -9.9	PK
1H total	71.0	66
1H projected score	AMER 30.5 · RUTG 40.5	AMER 33 · RUTG 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AMER WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1
RUTG WLL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: AMER away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
AMER OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
RUTG UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AMERlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	3-0 100%
RUTGlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

American

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +17.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

over 3under 0avg +17.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rutgers

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsRID	W 81-53	-18.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 10	vsME	W 72-60	-18.5	L −6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 14	vsLEH	W 84-72	-18.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 81-53

+9.5

W 72-60

−6.5

LEH

W 84-72

−6.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 81-53

−5.5

W 72-60

+1.5

LEH

W 84-72

+19.5

over 2under 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

American @ Rutgers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

American

Rutgers

American

Rutgers