Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETPetersen Events Center · at Pitt

#299BUCKBucknell50final

Final

#74PITTPitt84▲ winner

Closing linePITT -16.5✓ PITT covered by 17.5

Closing total141.5Under by 7.5

Season records: Bucknell and Pitt
BUCK	This season	PITT
2-2	Record	3-1
2-2	ATS	2-2
1-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BUCK 64–79 PITT · ✓ PITT (91%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BUCK	25	25	50
PITT	38	46	84

1st half: BUCK 25, PITT 38 (PITT by 13). The model had PITT by 9.1 and a total of 67.0 (actual 63).

Team stats

BUCK		PITT
13-47 28%	Field goals	31-61 51%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	13-25 52%
18-23 78%	Free throws	9-14 64%
29 10 off	Rebounds	42 15 off
11	Assists	20
6	Steals	10
3	Blocks	2
16	Turnovers	13
14	Fouls	22
14	Points in paint	26
4	Fast-break points	10

Players

BUCK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jayden Williams G	30	3	1	1	1-5	1-1
Amon Dorries C	29	9	3	2	1-7	0-2
Ruot Bijiek F	27	11	3	1	3-9	1-6
Achile Spadone G	26	3	4	0	1-5	1-3
Brandon McCreesh G	25	7	5	3	3-5	1-2
Bench
Aleksander Pachucki G	16	8	1	1	2-5	1-4
Grgur Brcic F	13	1	5	0	0-5	0-0
Josh Fulton G	13	2	1	2	1-2	0-0
Jacob Meachem G	10	5	0	1	1-3	1-2
Quin Berger G	8	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Patrick O'Brien F	3	1	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Pat Curtin, Kellen Welch, Brady Muller, Matt Lange

PITT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Corhen F	31	11	7	4	3-8	0-1
Omari Witherspoon G	25	11	2	5	5-8	1-2
Roman Siulepa F	22	7	1	1	3-5	0-1
Damarco Minor G	20	6	4	2	2-3	2-3
Brandin Cummings G	19	11	0	0	4-7	1-3
Bench
Barry Dunning Jr. G	27	23	7	0	8-13	7-11
Papa Amadou Kante F	23	2	11	5	1-3	0-0
Nojus Indrusaitis G	17	11	4	2	4-8	2-3
Macari Moore G	12	0	3	1	0-2	0-0
Kieran Mullen C	4	2	2	0	1-4	0-1

Did not play: Dishon Jackson, Benjamin Mayhew, Henry Lau, Amdy Ndiaye, Jajuan Nelson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PITT -16.5	PITT -15.4	BUCK +1.1	L PITT covered
Total	141.5	142.9	Over 1.4	L Under
Projected score	—	BUCK 63.7 · PITT 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PITT -9.1	PITT -13.0
1H total	67.0	63
1H projected score	BUCK 28.9 · PITT 38	BUCK 25 · PITT 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUCK WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
PITT WWLL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: BUCK away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUCK UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2
PITT UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUCKlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
PITTlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucknell

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

over 1under 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

over 1under 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bucknell @ Pitt

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bucknell

Pitt

Bucknell

Pitt