Pittsburgh Panthers at West Virginia Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 13, 6:00 PM ETHope Coliseum · at West Virginia

#74PITTPitt49final

Final

Closing lineWVU -5.5✓ WVU covered by 16.5

Closing total134.5Under by 14.5

Season records: Pitt and West Virginia
PITT	This season	WVU
3-0	Record	3-0
2-1	ATS	1-2
1-2	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PITT 66–70 WVU · ✓ WVU (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PITT	25	24	49
WVU	34	37	71

1st half: PITT 25, WVU 34 (WVU by 9). The model had WVU by 2.4 and a total of 64.0 (actual 59).

Team stats

PITT		WVU
20-53 38%	Field goals	24-56 43%
5-20 25%	3-pointers	7-24 29%
4-6 67%	Free throws	16-21 76%
31 6 off	Rebounds	34 8 off
12	Assists	13
4	Steals	6
5	Blocks	5
12	Turnovers	6
16	Fouls	11
20	Points in paint	32
9	Fast-break points	10

Players

PITT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Omari Witherspoon G	38	11	2	4	5-10	1-2
Cameron Corhen F	35	14	10	2	6-8	1-1
Damarco Minor G	34	4	4	3	1-9	0-4
Brandin Cummings G	32	7	2	2	3-13	1-8
Roman Siulepa F	31	6	3	0	2-5	1-3
Bench
Nojus Indrusaitis G	14	5	1	1	2-7	1-2
Papa Amadou Kante F	14	2	4	0	1-1	0-0
Barry Dunning Jr. G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jajuan Nelson, Henry Lau, Kieran Mullen, Amdy Ndiaye, Macari Moore, Dishon Jackson, Benjamin Mayhew

WVU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Harlan Obioha C	31	19	6	2	8-9	0-0
Jasper Floyd G	29	13	5	7	4-8	1-1
Honor Huff G	28	15	5	0	2-10	2-8
Treysen Eaglestaff G	26	3	1	1	1-6	1-4
Brenen Lorient F	25	6	3	0	3-7	0-3
Bench
Morris Ugusuk G	24	3	2	0	1-3	1-3
DJ Thomas F	23	10	5	2	4-9	2-5
Amir Jenkins G	12	2	2	1	1-4	0-0
Niyol Hauet G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jayden Forsythe G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Evans Barning Jr., MJ Feenane, Abraham Oyeadier, Jackson Fields, Chance Moore

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WVU -5.5	WVU -4.2	PITT +1.3	L WVU covered
Total	134.5	136.6	Over 2.1	L Under
Projected score	—	PITT 66.2 · WVU 70.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WVU -2.4	WVU -9.0
1H total	64.0	59
1H projected score	PITT 30.8 · WVU 33.2	PITT 25 · WVU 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WWL	2-1	67%	—	—
WVU LLW	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; WVU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
WVU UUU	0-3	0%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITTlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
WVUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PITT 2–2 WVUSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · PITT has won the last 2 meetings · PITT 3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2024-25	WVU 62 @ PITT 86	PITT -7.5	PITT W
Dec 6, 2023-24	PITT 80 @ WVU 63	WVU +3.5	PITT W
Nov 11, 2022-23	WVU 81 @ PITT 56	PITT +2.5	WVU W
Nov 12, 2021-22	PITT 59 @ WVU 74	WVU -17	PITT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pitt

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

over 1under 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

West Virginia

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −12.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsMSM	W 70-54	-19.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 6	vsCAM	W 73-65	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsLEH	W 69-47	-17.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 116

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−3.5

CAM

W 73-65

−7.5

LEH

W 69-47

+4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−12.5

CAM

W 73-65

−0.5

LEH

W 69-47

−23.5

over 0under 3avg −12.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pittsburgh Panthers at West Virginia Mountaineers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Pitt

West Virginia

Pitt

West Virginia