Cornell Big Red at Lafayette Leopards: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 13, 6:00 PM ETKirby Sports Center · at Lafayette

#179CORCornell97▲ winner

Final

#310LAFLafayette78final

Closing lineCOR -4.5✓ COR covered by 14.5

Closing total160.5Over by 14.5

Season records: Cornell and Lafayette
COR	This season	LAF
0-2	Record	0-2
0-2	ATS	1-1
1-1	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: COR 82–78 LAF · ✓ COR (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
COR	46	51	97
LAF	40	38	78

1st half: COR 46, LAF 40 (COR by 6). The model had COR by 2.7 and a total of 74.7 (actual 86).

Team stats

COR		LAF
35-67 52%	Field goals	28-63 44%
15-39 38%	3-pointers	5-15 33%
12-17 71%	Free throws	17-26 65%
44 11 off	Rebounds	34 9 off
23	Assists	16
6	Steals	3
2	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	9
24	Fouls	17
40	Points in paint	44
17	Fast-break points	5

Players

COR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cooper Noard G	28	26	6	2	9-15	5-10
Jacob Beccles G	26	17	3	4	7-11	1-4
Adam Hinton G	24	15	2	4	4-5	1-2
Kaspar Sepp F	16	2	6	1	1-5	0-4
DJ Nix F	14	4	3	1	2-4	0-2
Bench
Josh Baldwin G	20	2	10	3	1-8	0-3
Corbin Zentner G	15	9	1	3	3-4	3-4
Anthony Nimani G	15	0	1	3	0-0	0-0
DaMaryon Fishburn G	12	11	5	0	4-5	2-3
Ryan Burbach G	10	0	1	0	0-5	0-3
Gioacchino Panzini F	10	0	4	0	0-0	0-0
Ian Imegwu F	4	3	0	1	1-2	1-2
Jax Abalos F	3	5	0	1	2-2	1-1
Ty Iwanonkiw F	3	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Blake Lecklitner, AJ LaBeau, Elijah Griffin, AJ Rodriguez, Mateen Rafiq, Jake Fiegen

LAF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mark Butler G	33	8	2	7	4-9	0-1
Christian Humphrey-Rembert F	32	3	6	0	1-3	0-1
Andrew Phillips G	30	9	1	0	3-13	2-6
Caleb Williams G	24	19	5	1	5-14	1-3
Shareef Jackson F	20	13	4	0	6-9	0-1
Bench
Ryan Pettit G	23	5	1	6	2-5	1-2
Luke Bevilacqua F	17	9	6	2	3-4	0-0
KaiMani Murdock F	6	3	0	0	1-2	1-1
Folabomi Fayemi G	4	2	3	0	0-0	0-0
Malik Rasul F	3	5	2	0	2-3	0-0
Ashton Wallace G	3	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Misha Bednostin C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Azzinaro F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Justin Vander Baan, Beckett Currie, TJ Berger, Joshua Wyche, Chris Rubayo, Luka Savicevic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COR -4.5	COR -4.2	LAF +0.3	L COR covered
Total	160.5	159.5	Under 1.0	L Over
Projected score	—	COR 81.9 · LAF 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COR -2.7	COR -6.0
1H total	74.7	86
1H projected score	COR 38.7 · LAF 36	COR 46 · LAF 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COR LL	0-2	0%	0-2	—
LAF WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: COR away, as favorite; LAF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
COR OU	1-1	50%	0-2
LAF OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CORlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
LAFlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

COR 4–0 LAFCOR leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · COR has won the last 4 meetings · COR 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	LAF 71 @ COR 81	COR -10.5	LAF W
Dec 2, 2023-24	COR 79 @ LAF 71	LAF +9.5	LAF W
Dec 4, 2022-23	LAF 68 @ COR 73	COR -8.5	LAF W
Nov 12, 2021-22	COR 90 @ LAF 85	LAF -3.5	COR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cornell

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +12 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@KENT	L 102-110	+6.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 9	@ILST	L 65-76	+6.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

−1.5

ILST

L 65-76

−4.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 102-110

+47.5

ILST

L 65-76

−23.5

over 1under 1avg +12 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lafayette

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +13 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

over 2under 0avg +13 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cornell Big Red at Lafayette Leopards

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cornell

Lafayette

Cornell

Lafayette