Delaware State Hornets at UMBC Retrievers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 2:00 PM ETChesapeake Employers Insurance Arena · at UMBC

Final

#264UMBCUMBC71▲ winner

Closing lineUMBC -13.5✓ UMBC covered by 0.5

Closing total138.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Delaware St and UMBC
DSU	This season	UMBC
0-5	Record	2-2
0-5	ATS	1-3
0-5	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DSU 68–77 UMBC · ✓ UMBC (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DSU	22	35	57
UMBC	34	37	71

1st half: DSU 22, UMBC 34 (UMBC by 12). The model had UMBC by 5.4 and a total of 67.6 (actual 56).

Team stats

DSU		UMBC
24-63 38%	Field goals	28-59 47%
2-9 22%	3-pointers	9-23 39%
7-9 78%	Free throws	6-9 67%
34 10 off	Rebounds	39 9 off
3	Assists	14
9	Steals	2
2	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	12
12	Fouls	13
26	Points in paint	38
9	Fast-break points	14

Players

DSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ponce James G	33	19	4	1	7-14	1-1
Zion Bethea G	26	6	5	0	3-9	0-3
Ademar Santos F	22	3	1	0	1-4	0-0
Cyril Obasogie C	13	2	6	0	1-5	0-0
Rahmir Moore G	10	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Jalen St Clair G	19	4	1	1	1-6	0-2
Corey Perkins G	18	11	4	0	5-9	1-2
Miles Webb F	18	6	3	1	3-5	0-0
Bessanty Saragba F	15	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Kareem Watson F	12	6	1	0	3-6	0-0
John Clemmons G	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Dean Shepherd G	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Theodore Pendergrass III, Camian Shell, Muazibini Adamu, Omar Stephen

UMBC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DJ Armstrong Jr. G	34	12	8	2	4-10	4-9
Jah'Likai King G	33	11	5	3	5-11	1-5
Ace Valentine G	26	6	3	3	2-3	0-1
Josh Odunowo F	25	10	5	2	4-9	0-0
Riley Jacobs F	17	1	6	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Caden Diggs F	20	11	3	0	5-9	0-2
Daylon Dickerson F	19	12	5	1	5-7	2-2
Cougar Downing G	16	8	1	1	3-6	2-4
Jose Roberto Tanchyn F	9	0	1	1	0-2	0-0
Tim Eze F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jake Stout, Paul Greene, Regimantas Ciunys, Saahil Thakkar, Devin Ceaser

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UMBC -13.5	UMBC -9.1	DSU +4.4	L UMBC covered
Total	138.5	144.3	Over 5.8	L Under
Projected score	—	DSU 67.6 · UMBC 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UMBC -5.4	UMBC -12.0
1H total	67.6	56
1H projected score	DSU 31.1 · UMBC 36.5	DSU 22 · UMBC 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DSU LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-5	0-5
UMBC WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: DSU away, as underdog; UMBC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DSU UUUUU	0-5	0%	0-5
UMBC UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DSUlast 5	0-5 0%	0-5 0%	0-5 0%
UMBClast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Delaware St

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-5

0% overs · avg −15.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-50%

U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@TEM	L 65-83	+16.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 8	@SYR	L 43-83	+26.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 10	@NIA	L 57-68	+5.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 15	@NHVN	L 52-65	+1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 23	@MIA	L 41-97	+34.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−1.5

SYR

L 43-83

−13.5

NIA

L 57-68

−5.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−11.5

MIA

L 41-97

−21.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−6.5

SYR

L 43-83

−31.5

NIA

L 57-68

−12.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−13.5

MIA

L 41-97

−13.5

over 0under 5avg −15.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UMBC

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@DAY	L 71-77	+25.5	W +19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@MORG	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 16	vsWAG	W 71-70	-6.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 19	@GW	L 52-89	+22.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 71-77

+19.5

MORG

W 81-79

−2.5

WAG

W 71-70

−5.5

L 52-89

−14.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 71-77

−6.5

MORG

W 81-79

−2.5

WAG

W 71-70

+0.5

L 52-89

−19.5

over 1under 3avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Delaware State Hornets at UMBC Retrievers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Delaware St

UMBC

Delaware St

UMBC