1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 12
  3. MORG @ UMBC
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 12

Morgan State Bears at UMBC Retrievers

Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena · at UMBC
#345MORGMorgan St
@
#264UMBCUMBC
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MORGThis seasonUMBC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UMBC 81–71 · win probability UMBC 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

MORG 1, UMBC 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UMBCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7; UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4
UMBCSmall
UMBC offense vs MORG defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MORG plays 71.1 a game (73rd fastest), UMBC 67.0 (278th). Faster games mean more points
UMBCSmall
Three-pointers
MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%; UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 35.2% and 38.8% of their shots
UMBCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MORG 42.7, UMBC 34.1. Allowed: MORG 50.9, UMBC 25.7
UMBCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MORG 30.7%, UMBC 24.9%. Defensive: MORG 64.8%, UMBC 74.2%
UMBCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MORG 17.8%, UMBC 14.1%. Forced: MORG 16.5%, UMBC 15.1%
UMBCSmall
Home court
UMBC at home. This season: UMBC 0-0 at home, MORG 0-0 away
MORGSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MORG 36%, UMBC 11%. Transfers in: MORG 3, UMBC 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
MORG has played the 360th-hardest schedule, UMBC the 342nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
MORG offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UMBC -9.9—
Total—151.5—
Projected score—MORG 70.8 · UMBC 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUMBC -5.8—
1H total70.8—
1H projected scoreMORG 32.5 · UMBC 38.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Morgan St 0, UMBC 0, even 5
Morgan StBetterUMBC
G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70
Even
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12
Even
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19
Even
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
Morgan StBetterUMBC
MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1
Even
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0
UMBCSmall
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players
UMBCSmall
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestMORG betterUMBC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Morgan St
Guards
A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew
Forwards
K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MORGUMBC
Scoring
71.7 #252Points per game75.7 #149
1.01 #316Points per possession1.13 #85
71.1 #73Pace (possessions)67.0 #278
Shooting
45.8 #351Effective FG%54.1 #64
31.7 #2953-point %36.1 #55
35.2 #2743-point attempt rate38.8 #195
42.7 #22Free throw rate34.1 #205
Possessions
17.8 #262Turnover rate14.1 #25
30.7 #172Offensive rebound rate24.9 #342
12.2 #269Assists per game11.9 #291
Defense
80.1 #321Points allowed68.5 #41
1.13 #288Points allowed per possession1.02 #46
51.7 #194Opponent effective FG%49.4 #79
31.5 #43Opponent 3-point %32.7 #98
16.5 #186Turnovers forced15.1 #283
64.8 #341Defensive rebound rate74.2 #18
4.3 #359Steals per game4.9 #338
3.3 #172Blocks per game2.4 #314
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morgan St

11-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Delaware St70–75
  • Wvs Coppin St70–66
  • Wvs Norfolk St90–84
  • Lvs Howard59–84
  • W@ SC State90–83

A week or more of rest.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.