1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. MORG @ NCAT
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Morgan State Bears at North Carolina A&T Aggies

Corbett Sports Center · at NC A&T
#345MORGMorgan St
@
#275NCATNC A&T
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MORGThis seasonNCAT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCAT 82–72 · win probability NCAT 81%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCAT has more of the edges

MORG 2, NCAT 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MORGBig
Three-pointers
MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%; NCAT hits 31.6% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 35.2% and 32.6% of their shots
NCATBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MORG 30.7%, NCAT 31.7%. Defensive: MORG 64.8%, NCAT 71.4%
NCATBig
NCAT offense vs MORG defense
Offense 234th of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MORG has played the 360th-hardest schedule, NCAT the 238th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MORGSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MORG 17.8%, NCAT 18.6%. Forced: MORG 16.5%, NCAT 14.1%
NCATSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MORG 42.7, NCAT 42.3. Allowed: MORG 50.9, NCAT 37.5
NCATSmall
Home court
NCAT at home. This season: NCAT 0-0 at home, MORG 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7; NCAT 50.7 and allows 52.9
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MORG plays 71.1 a game (73rd fastest), NCAT 69.4 (150th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MORG 36%, NCAT 16%. Transfers in: MORG 3, NCAT 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
MORG offense vs NCAT defense
Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 311th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCAT -10.0—
Total—154.4—
Projected score—MORG 72.2 · NCAT 82.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCAT -5.8—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreMORG 33.2 · NCAT 39—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC A&T has the better starters

Position by position: Morgan St 0, NC A&T 1, even 4
Morgan StBetterNC A&T
G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70
Even
G P. James TR13.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.1 ast Score 66
G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12
NCATBig
G S. Lancaster TR10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 50
G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Burton5.2 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13
F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19
No call
F M. Webster NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
C W. Felton6.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 65
Morgan StBetterNC A&T
MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1
Even
NCAT defense311th of 366 · -8.1
MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0
NCATSmall
NCAT offense234th of 366 · -7.2
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
NCATSmall
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players
NCATBig
Frontcourt+0.8 · 2 players
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestMORG betterNCAT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Morgan St
Guards
A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew
Forwards
K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew
NC A&T
Guards
P. James33 min · TRS. Lancaster29 min · TRM. Burton17 minJ. McKieNewU. Kellman-NicholesNewB. IveryNew
Forwards
M. WebsterNewS. SimleyNew
Centers
W. Felton16 minE. KalliontzisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MORGNCAT
Scoring
71.7 #252Points per game73.9 #205
1.01 #316Points per possession1.07 #213
71.1 #73Pace (possessions)69.4 #150
Shooting
45.8 #351Effective FG%50.7 #201
31.7 #2953-point %31.6 #304
35.2 #2743-point attempt rate32.6 #322
42.7 #22Free throw rate42.3 #26
Possessions
17.8 #262Turnover rate18.6 #304
30.7 #172Offensive rebound rate31.7 #136
12.2 #269Assists per game11.5 #311
Defense
80.1 #321Points allowed78.5 #278
1.13 #288Points allowed per possession1.13 #285
51.7 #194Opponent effective FG%52.9 #266
31.5 #43Opponent 3-point %36.6 #331
16.5 #186Turnovers forced14.1 #332
64.8 #341Defensive rebound rate71.4 #89
4.3 #359Steals per game5.1 #323
3.3 #172Blocks per game3.8 #107
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morgan St

11-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-5 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Delaware St70–75
  • Wvs Coppin St70–66
  • Wvs Norfolk St90–84
  • Lvs Howard59–84
  • W@ SC State90–83

A week or more of rest.

NC A&T

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northeastern72–88
  • L@ Campbell72–90
  • Lvs William & Mary88–91
  • L@ UNC Wilmington65–88
  • W@ Elon102–82

A week or more of rest.