VMI Keydets at Longwood Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETJoan Perry Brock Center · at Longwood

#320VMIVMI

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: VMI and Longwood
VMI	This season	LONG
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LONG 81–72 · win probability LONG 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LONG has more of the edges

VMI 1, LONG 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LONGBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: VMI 25.6%, LONG 34.6%. Defensive: VMI 62.8%, LONG 72.3%

LONGBig

LONG offense vs VMI defense

Offense 182nd of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: VMI plays 67.6 a game (251st fastest), LONG 71.5 (54th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

VMI has played the 253rd-hardest schedule, LONG the 330th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LONGSmall

Three-pointers

VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%; LONG hits 31.4% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 53.6% and 34.8% of their shots

LONGSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0; LONG 49.7 and allows 53.8

VMISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: VMI 59%, LONG 28%. Transfers in: VMI 1, LONG 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

LONGSmall

Home court

LONG at home. This season: LONG 0-0 at home, VMI 0-0 away

LONGSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: VMI 30.6, LONG 41.4. Allowed: VMI 34.6, LONG 42.1

LONGSmall

VMI offense vs LONG defense

Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 242nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: VMI 15.3%, LONG 19.2%. Forced: VMI 15.7%, LONG 19.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LONG -9.3	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	VMI 71.5 · LONG 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LONG -5.4	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	VMI 32.9 · LONG 38.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VMI WLLWL	9-20	31%	7-8	—
LONG WLWWL	13-16	45%	7-5	—

Venue/role: VMI away; LONG home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
VMI UUUOU	13-16	45%	3-26
LONG OUOOO	16-13	55%	13-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VMI	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
LONG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

VMI

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs GWEB	W64–61WU
Nov 24	vs USI	W78–74WU
Nov 28	@ RICH	L54–87LU

Longwood

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ ETSU	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ GMU	L69–83LO
Nov 29	vs UMES	L82–83LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VMI 0–2 LONGLONG leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · LONG has won the last 2 meetings · VMI 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2023-24	VMI 49 @ LONG 68	LONG -17.5	LONG W
Nov 18, 2022-23	VMI 58 @ LONG 90	LONG -13.5	LONG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

VMI

29 games played

Straight up

3-26

10% wins

Against the spread

9-20

31% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2610%

W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

17 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-2031%

W L L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1645%

U O U U O U U U O O U O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Nov 29	@UCF	L 57-82	+25.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsL-MD	W 86-70	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 21	@RAD	L 90-97	+11.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 187
Jan 1	vsSAM	L 58-78	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	vsUTC	W 79-71	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 7	@ETSU	L 67-81	+16.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	@FUR	L 48-69	+12.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsMER	L 67-77	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsCIT	L 68-82	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNCG	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 24	@WCU	L 58-88	+8.5	L −21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@CIT	L 56-80	+2.5	L −21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	@MER	L 81-95	+18.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsWOF	L 67-81	+8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsETSU	L 70-87	+14.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	@UNCG	L 71-92	+8.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsFUR	L 72-90	+11.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	@WOF	L 76-82	+13.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsWCU	L 62-81	+8.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 26	@SAM	L 61-80	+17.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	@UTC	L 79-86	+11.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsUNCG	L 70-84	+7.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

UCF

L 57-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+18.5

RAD

L 90-97

+4.5

SAM

L 58-78

−13.5

UTC

W 79-71

+14.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+2.5

FUR

L 48-69

−8.5

MER

L 67-77

−1.5

CIT

L 68-82

−20.5

UNCG

L 78-85

−4.5

WCU

L 58-88

−21.5

CIT

L 56-80

−21.5

MER

L 81-95

+4.5

WOF

L 67-81

−5.5

ETSU

L 70-87

−2.5

UNCG

L 71-92

−12.5

FUR

L 72-90

−6.5

WOF

L 76-82

+7.5

WCU

L 62-81

−10.5

SAM

L 61-80

−1.5

UTC

L 79-86

+4.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−6.5

covered 9didn’t cover 20avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

UCF

L 57-82

−20.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+4.5

RAD

L 90-97

+28.5

SAM

L 58-78

−18.5

UTC

W 79-71

+0.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+1.5

FUR

L 48-69

−32.5

MER

L 67-77

−9.5

CIT

L 68-82

+6.5

UNCG

L 78-85

+11.5

WCU

L 58-88

−6.5

CIT

L 56-80

−6.5

MER

L 81-95

+22.5

WOF

L 67-81

−1.5

ETSU

L 70-87

+13.5

UNCG

L 71-92

+12.5

FUR

L 72-90

+13.5

WOF

L 76-82

−0.5

WCU

L 62-81

−11.5

SAM

L 61-80

−14.5

UTC

L 79-86

+10.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−0.5

over 13under 16avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Longwood

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L W W L L L W L W L L W W L L W L W W L L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L W L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

U O O O O U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsME	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	@AMER	L 66-92	+5.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MORG	W 84-80	-5.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 13	vsDSU	L 76-81	-13.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 17	@WAKE	L 68-71	+24.5	W +21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 20	@NCCU	W 74-72	-3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsWIN	W 82-70	+7.5	W +19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	@HPU	L 67-80	+16.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 147
Jan 7	@UNCA	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsPRES	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 17	@RAD	L 83-85	+4.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsGWEB	W 91-56	-16.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsCHSO	W 81-79	-1.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 160
Jan 29	@UPST	L 60-65	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 125
Jan 31	vsHPU	L 59-71	+9.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 130
Feb 4	@GWEB	W 86-66	-12.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WIN	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	vsUNCA	L 74-79	-2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsUPST	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@PRES	L 65-72	+2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@CHSO	W 107-96	+2.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 203
Feb 28	vsRAD	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsUNCA	L 82-85	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

W 65-61

−1.5

AMER

L 66-92

−20.5

MORG

W 84-80

−1.5

DSU

L 76-81

−18.5

WAKE

L 68-71

+21.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−1.5

WIN

W 82-70

+19.5

HPU

L 67-80

+3.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−8.5

PRES

W 77-70

+3.5

RAD

L 83-85

+2.5

GWEB

W 91-56

+18.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+0.5

UPST

L 60-65

−6.5

HPU

L 59-71

−2.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+7.5

WIN

L 74-79

+5.5

UNCA

L 74-79

−7.5

UPST

W 82-75

+0.5

PRES

L 65-72

−4.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+13.5

RAD

W 90-74

+14.5

UNCA

L 82-85

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

W 65-61

−12.5

AMER

L 66-92

+9.5

MORG

W 84-80

+9.5

DSU

L 76-81

+17.5

WAKE

L 68-71

−24.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−0.5

WIN

W 82-70

−9.5

HPU

L 67-80

−13.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−15.5

PRES

W 77-70

+7.5

RAD

L 83-85

+10.5

GWEB

W 91-56

−8.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+3.5

UPST

L 60-65

−22.5

HPU

L 59-71

−26.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+4.5

WIN

L 74-79

−0.5

UNCA

L 74-79

+11.5

UPST

W 82-75

+9.5

PRES

L 65-72

−2.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+48.5

RAD

W 90-74

+9.5

UNCA

L 82-85

+26.5

over 16under 13avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Longwood has the better starters

Position by position: VMI 1, Longwood 3, even 1

VMIBetterLongwood

G A. Clark6.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

LONGSmall

G M. Williams TR9.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.1 ast Score 65

G W. Andrews3.9 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

LONGSmall

G A. Billups7.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 47

F T. Johnson18.1 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 75

VMISmall

G J. Benard7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 44

F C. Liston4.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2

LONGBig

G T. Robinson TR9.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 64

F A. Daushvili6.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Kelly2.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

VMIBetterLongwood

VMI offense288th of 366 · -8.9

Even

LONG defense242nd of 366 · -6.4

VMI defense342nd of 366 · -9.1

LONGBig

LONG offense182nd of 366 · -5.7

Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-1.7 · 5 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.8 · 3 players

Even

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestVMI betterLONG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

VMI

Guards

A. Clark27 minW. Andrews12 minT. Johnson9 min · TRB. Edmonds2 minM. Lawson2 minR. BradleyNew

Forwards

T. Johnson37 minC. Liston22 minA. Daushvili17 minR. PetersNewP. NarvilasNewJ. PanzoNew

Longwood

Guards

M. Williams24 min · TRA. Billups23 minJ. Benard20 minT. Robinson19 min · TRE. Kelly11 minB. Wesson2 min · TR

Forwards

D. Kauzonas10 min · TRL. Milosevic8 min · TRK. Musungay4 min · TRI. Kalala3 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

VMI68.5 #306

LONG75.9 #143

Points per possession

VMI1.01 #311

LONG1.07 #215

Pace (possessions)

VMI67.6 #251

LONG71.5 #54

Shooting

Effective FG%

VMI47.5 #325

LONG49.7 #254

3-point %

VMI31.5 #306

LONG31.4 #309

3-point attempt rate

VMI53.6 #2

LONG34.8 #279

Free throw rate

VMI30.6 #293

LONG41.4 #40

Possessions

Turnover rate

VMI15.3 #88

LONG19.2 #327

Offensive rebound rate

VMI25.6 #330

LONG34.6 #57

Assists per game

VMI11.6 #309

LONG12.2 #270

Defense

Points allowed

VMI83.2 #348

LONG76.2 #223

Points allowed per possession

VMI1.23 #362

LONG1.06 #113

Opponent effective FG%

VMI57.0 #357

LONG53.8 #293

Opponent 3-point %

VMI36.5 #327

LONG33.8 #171

Turnovers forced

VMI15.7 #239

LONG19.7 #31

Defensive rebound rate

VMI62.8 #360

LONG72.3 #58

Steals per game

VMI6.6 #160

LONG8.3 #28

Blocks per game

VMI2.0 #343

LONG2.0 #347

VMI		LONG
Scoring
68.5 #306	Points per game	75.9 #143
1.01 #311	Points per possession	1.07 #215
67.6 #251	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #54
Shooting
47.5 #325	Effective FG%	49.7 #254
31.5 #306	3-point %	31.4 #309
53.6 #2	3-point attempt rate	34.8 #279
30.6 #293	Free throw rate	41.4 #40
Possessions
15.3 #88	Turnover rate	19.2 #327
25.6 #330	Offensive rebound rate	34.6 #57
11.6 #309	Assists per game	12.2 #270
Defense
83.2 #348	Points allowed	76.2 #223
1.23 #362	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #113
57.0 #357	Opponent effective FG%	53.8 #293
36.5 #327	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #171
15.7 #239	Turnovers forced	19.7 #31
62.8 #360	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #58
6.6 #160	Steals per game	8.3 #28
2.0 #343	Blocks per game	2.0 #347

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
L@ Chattanooga79–86
L@ Samford61–80
Lvs W Carolina62–81
L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.

Longwood

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Asheville82–85
Wvs Radford90–74
W@ Charleston So107–96
L@ Presbyterian65–72
Wvs SC Upstate82–75

A week or more of rest.

VMI Keydets at Longwood Lancers

What could decide it: LONG has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

VMI

Longwood

Longwood has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

VMI

Longwood