VMI Keydets at UCF Knights: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ETAddition Financial Arena · at UCF

#320VMIVMI57final

Final

#39UCFUCF82▲ winner

Closing lineUCF -25.5✓ VMI covered by 0.5

Closing total159.5Under by 20.5

Season records: VMI and UCF
VMI	This season	UCF
1-6	Record	6-1
1-6	ATS	3-4
2-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VMI 68–94 UCF · ✓ UCF (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
VMI	32	25	57
UCF	45	37	82

1st half: VMI 32, UCF 45 (UCF by 13). The model had UCF by 15.5 and a total of 75.8 (actual 77).

Team stats

VMI		UCF
17-61 28%	Field goals	32-80 40%
8-34 24%	3-pointers	4-30 13%
15-21 71%	Free throws	14-17 82%
38 16 off	Rebounds	57 28 off
6	Assists	19
6	Steals	6
1	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	8
19	Fouls	16
16	Points in paint	54
3	Fast-break points	21

Players

VMI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Johnson F	30	5	10	0	1-11	1-7
Linus Holmstrom G	25	8	3	0	3-10	1-8
Tan Yildizoglu G	24	2	4	2	0-3	0-2
Mason Hagedorn F	19	3	1	1	1-5	1-4
AJ Clark G	15	2	4	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Mario Tatum Jr. G	30	19	1	2	6-12	3-6
Cal Liston F	18	0	5	0	0-4	0-1
Walker Andrews G	14	7	3	0	3-7	1-4
Kaden Stuckey F	13	4	3	0	0-2	0-1
Jaylen Pazon G	12	7	1	0	2-5	1-1

Did not play: Alexander Daushvili, Mason Lawson, Branford Edmonds III, Robert Peters, Rickey Bradley Jr.

UCF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamichael Stillwell F	29	21	14	5	8-12	0-0
Themus Fulks G	27	11	5	5	4-6	0-1
Jordan Burks F	19	14	5	0	6-14	0-5
Riley Kugel G	16	0	4	2	0-8	0-3
John Bol C	12	6	5	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Carmelo Pacheco G	22	6	3	2	2-9	2-9
Devan Cambridge F	21	8	7	2	3-8	0-3
Chris Johnson G	19	3	3	1	1-7	1-4
George Beale Jr. G	13	3	1	1	1-8	1-5
Kris Parker G	12	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Jeremy Foumena C	8	8	0	0	4-5	0-0
Poohpha Warakulnukroh G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Zachary Johnson F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tanner Jones, Elijah Hulsewe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCF -25.5	UCF -26.0	UCF +0.5	L VMI covered
Total	159.5	162.0	Over 2.5	L Under
Projected score	—	VMI 68 · UCF 94

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCF -15.5	UCF -13.0
1H total	75.8	77
1H projected score	VMI 30.1 · UCF 45.7	VMI 32 · UCF 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VMI LLLLL	1-6	14%	1-3	0-5
UCF WWLWL	3-4	43%	1-4	1-3

Venue/role: VMI away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VMI UUOUU	2-5	29%	1-6
UCF UUOUO	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VMIlast 7	1-6 14%	1-6 14%	2-5 29%
UCFlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

VMI

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

1-6

14% covers · avg −11.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-614%

W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

covered 1didn’t cover 6avg −11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

over 2under 5avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCF

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 17	vsOAK	W 87-83	-13.5	L −9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPITT	W 77-67	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsQUIN	W 102-91	-13.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 193

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

OAK

W 87-83

−9.5

PITT

W 77-67

+11.5

QUIN

W 102-91

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

OAK

W 87-83

+6.5

PITT

W 77-67

−5.5

QUIN

W 102-91

+30.5

over 4under 3avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

VMI Keydets at UCF Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

VMI

UCF

VMI

UCF