Manhattan Jaspers at Army Black Knights: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ETChristl Arena · at Army

#330MANManhattan78final

Final

#288ARMYArmy81▲ winner

Closing lineMAN -1.5✓ ARMY covered by 4.5

Closing total152.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Manhattan and Army
MAN	This season	ARMY
2-4	Record	1-6
1-5	ATS	4-3
3-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MAN 81–83 ARMY · ✓ ARMY (58%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
MAN	30	36	12	78
ARMY	33	33	15	81

1st half: MAN 30, ARMY 33 (ARMY by 3). The model had ARMY by 1.3 and a total of 76.6 (actual 63).

Team stats

MAN		ARMY
27-65 42%	Field goals	30-66 45%
9-28 32%	3-pointers	15-32 47%
15-17 88%	Free throws	6-6 100%
34 9 off	Rebounds	41 10 off
9	Assists	20
8	Steals	7
3	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	15
13	Fouls	16
34	Points in paint	30
11	Fast-break points	10

Players

MAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Devin Dinkins G	44	18	2	1	6-17	2-6
Jaden Winston G	44	18	0	2	6-14	2-3
Fraser Roxburgh F	42	18	10	1	8-16	2-8
Erik Oliver-Bush G	16	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Marko Ljubicic F	14	2	6	0	0-4	0-3
Bench
Anthony Isaac Jr. F	32	11	7	2	3-5	1-2
Terrance Jones G	28	11	4	1	4-6	2-4
Jackson Delaney G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Nick Lukmann, Asier Miguel, Omari Moore, Jameson Borodawka, Quron Elliott, Jaeden Robley, Brett Rumpel, Will Sydnor, Louis Fairtlough, Michael Lawlor, Aryan Arora

ARMY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Curry G	41	26	8	7	8-15	6-10
Jacen Holloway F	37	6	7	6	3-9	0-2
Jackson Furman G	29	10	4	1	4-11	2-5
Jorn Everson F	26	11	2	1	5-8	1-2
Tate Laczkowski F	24	9	5	1	4-7	1-2
Bench
Jaxson Bell G	36	19	4	0	6-10	5-8
Joshua Eli F	22	0	4	2	0-4	0-1
Dayon Polk G	9	0	3	1	0-2	0-2
Alex Engro G	1	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dillon Watt, Dylan Benner, Jahaan Green, Nnaemeka Ikechi, Dylan Murans, Brendon O'Keefe, Kevin McCarthy, Jackson Mayo, Chanse Perkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MAN -1.5	ARMY -2.4	ARMY +3.9	W ARMY covered
Total	152.5	163.7	Over 11.2	W Over
Projected score	—	MAN 80.6 · ARMY 83

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARMY -1.3	ARMY -3.0
1H total	76.6	63
1H projected score	MAN 37.6 · ARMY 38.9	MAN 30 · ARMY 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MAN WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-3	0-2
ARMY LWWLW	4-3	57%	0-2	4-3

Venue/role: MAN away, as favorite; ARMY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MAN UUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
ARMY UUOOO	5-2	71%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MANlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	3-3 50%
ARMYlast 7	1-6 14%	4-3 57%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MAN 2–0 ARMYMAN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MAN has won the last 2 meetings · MAN 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 22, 2024-25	ARMY 79 @ MAN 80	MAN +1.5	MAN W
Nov 26, 2022-23	ARMY 71 vs MAN 72	MAN +4	MAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Manhattan

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −7.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +15.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsMVSU	W 80-73	-20.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 21	@TA&M	L 68-109	+23.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsWAG	L 101-103	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−13.5

TA&M

L 68-109

−17.5

WAG

L 101-103

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−1.5

TA&M

L 68-109

+14.5

WAG

L 101-103

+59.5

over 3under 3avg +15.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Army

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@STMN	L 76-83	+18.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsDUKE	L 59-114	+33.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsHARV	L 52-75	+6.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 18	@COR	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 21	@MRST	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 141
Nov 25	vsETAM	L 67-84	+2.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 26	@FDU	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+11.5

DUKE

L 59-114

−21.5

HARV

L 52-75

−16.5

COR

L 73-86

+4.5

MRST

L 65-76

+1.5

ETAM

L 67-84

−14.5

FDU

W 81-73

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+7.5

DUKE

L 59-114

+20.5

HARV

L 52-75

−19.5

COR

L 73-86

−5.5

MRST

L 65-76

+8.5

ETAM

L 67-84

+7.5

FDU

W 81-73

+1.5

over 5under 2avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Manhattan @ Army

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Manhattan

Army

Manhattan

Army