Alcorn State Braves at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ETThomas Assembly Center · at Louisiana Tech

#360ALCNAlcorn St58final

Final

Closing lineLT -16.5✓ LT covered by 8.5

Closing total137.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Alcorn St and Louisiana Tech
ALCN	This season	LT
1-7	Record	2-2
5-3	ATS	1-3
5-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALCN 63–76 LT · ✓ LT (87%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALCN	30	28	58
LT	37	46	83

1st half: ALCN 30, LT 37 (LT by 7). The model had LT by 7.6 and a total of 64.9 (actual 67).

Team stats

ALCN		LT
22-57 39%	Field goals	35-66 53%
4-14 29%	3-pointers	8-21 38%
10-21 48%	Free throws	5-9 56%
33 16 off	Rebounds	42 16 off
5	Assists	16
5	Steals	6
7	Blocks	8
13	Turnovers	8
11	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	48
9	Fast-break points	3

Players

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jameel Morris G	30	6	6	3	3-9	0-2
Omari Hamilton F	21	8	3	0	3-7	0-2
Tycen McDaniels F	20	11	3	0	4-8	0-1
Nick Woodard SF	17	5	1	1	1-4	1-2
Shane Lancaster G	16	7	1	0	2-5	2-3
Bench
Davian Williams PG	26	9	2	0	4-9	1-2
Travis Roberts SG	22	2	4	0	1-4	0-1
William Henderson F	20	4	4	0	1-3	0-0
Mike Jones SG	18	4	3	0	2-6	0-1
Bryson Calamese PG	10	2	2	1	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Alex Hawkins, Jeremy Ellis, Ray Glasgow

LT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AJ Bates G	31	26	3	6	10-14	4-6
Jaylen Fenner G	17	5	1	1	2-3	1-2
Avery Thomas II F	15	3	4	0	1-9	0-5
Will Allen F	13	4	4	0	2-2	0-0
Melian Martinez C	12	4	4	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
DJ Dudley G	28	10	3	5	4-12	2-4
Kaden Cooper F	27	10	9	1	4-6	1-1
Scooter Williams G	23	9	4	1	4-7	0-2
Sir Issac Herron F	21	12	6	1	6-7	0-0
Will Jeffress F	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Kylan Howze F	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Keegan Rowell G	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jermaurhiyun Anderson, Lachlan Thompson, A'Meir Williams

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LT -16.5	LT -12.8	ALCN +3.7	L LT covered
Total	137.5	138.5	Over 1.0	W Over
Projected score	—	ALCN 62.8 · LT 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LT -7.6	LT -7.0
1H total	64.9	67
1H projected score	ALCN 28.6 · LT 36.2	ALCN 30 · LT 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN WLWWW	5-3	63%	4-3	5-3
LT LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ALCN away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN OUOUO	5-3	63%	1-7
LT UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCNlast 8	1-7 13%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%
LTlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

8 games played

Straight up

1-7

13% wins

Against the spread

5-3

63% covers · avg +5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-713%

L L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-363%

L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-363%

O O U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsINST	W 81-74	+12.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

INST

W 81-74

+19.5

covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

INST

W 81-74

+2.5

over 5under 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana Tech

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −16.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@INST	L 51-60	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 26	vsINST	W 75-73	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

INST

L 51-60

−5.5

INST

W 75-73

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

INST

L 51-60

−36.5

INST

W 75-73

+6.5

over 1under 3avg −16.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alcorn St @ Louisiana Tech

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Louisiana Tech

Alcorn St

Louisiana Tech