Alcorn State Braves at Howard Bison: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETBurr Gymnasium · at Howard

#360ALCNAlcorn St64final

Final

#197HOWHoward72▲ winner

Closing lineHOW -6.5✓ HOW covered by 1.5

Closing total154.5Under by 18.5

Season records: Alcorn St and Howard
ALCN	This season	HOW
0-4	Record	0-2
2-2	ATS	0-2
3-1	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALCN 73–78 HOW · ✓ HOW (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALCN	23	41	64
HOW	28	44	72

1st half: ALCN 23, HOW 28 (HOW by 5). The model had HOW by 3.2 and a total of 70.9 (actual 51).

Team stats

ALCN		HOW
24-58 41%	Field goals	28-49 57%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	3-11 27%
10-12 83%	Free throws	13-19 68%
20 6 off	Rebounds	32 10 off
7	Assists	12
9	Steals	7
2	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	17
18	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	42
11	Fast-break points	19

Players

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Davian Williams PG	32	8	2	1	2-8	1-4
Travis Roberts SG	30	5	0	0	2-5	1-4
Nick Woodard SF	26	0	2	1	0-3	0-1
Tycen McDaniels F	22	11	7	2	5-9	0-0
Mike Jones SG	12	6	1	0	2-3	1-1
Bench
Jameel Morris G	27	12	0	2	6-14	0-3
Shane Lancaster G	20	14	1	1	4-9	3-7
Omari Hamilton F	18	6	4	0	2-4	0-1
Bryson Calamese PG	7	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
William Henderson F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jeremy Ellis PF	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alex Hawkins, Ray Glasgow

HOW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bryce Harris G	35	24	9	3	9-12	2-3
Travelle Bryson G	35	12	6	0	6-12	0-2
Ed Holland III G	34	5	7	1	2-4	0-1
Cam Gillus G	29	9	3	5	2-6	0-2
Ose Okojie G	28	10	1	1	5-8	0-0
Bench
Calvin Robins Jr. F	15	4	3	0	1-1	0-0
Isaiah Brown G	12	3	1	1	1-2	0-0
BJ Powell G	7	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Jeremiah Johnson G	5	3	1	0	1-3	1-3

Did not play: Cedric Taylor III, Alex Cotton, Danas Kazakevicius, River Smith, Julian Johnson, Shane Frazier, Stefan Isailovic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HOW -6.5	HOW -5.5	ALCN +1.0	L HOW covered
Total	154.5	151.4	Under 3.1	W Under
Projected score	—	ALCN 72.9 · HOW 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOW -3.2	HOW -5.0
1H total	70.9	51
1H projected score	ALCN 33.9 · HOW 37	ALCN 23 · HOW 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN LWLW	2-2	50%	2-2	2-2
HOW LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: ALCN away, as underdog; HOW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN OOUO	3-1	75%	0-4
HOW UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCNlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
HOWlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

over 3under 1avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Howard

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMIZ	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 9	vsGRAM	L 70-73	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−0.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−7.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−3.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−9.5

over 0under 2avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alcorn St @ Howard

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Howard

Alcorn St

Howard