Purdue Boilermakers at Alabama Crimson Tide: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETColeman Coliseum · at Alabama

#23PURPurdue AP #287▲ winner

Final

#15ALAAlabama AP #880final

Closing lineALA -3.5✓ PUR covered by 10.5

Closing total172.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Purdue and Alabama
PUR	This season	ALA
2-0	Record	2-0
0-2	ATS	1-1
1-1	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PUR 84–87 ALA · ✗ ALA (59%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PUR	43	44	87
ALA	41	39	80

1st half: PUR 43, ALA 41 (PUR by 2). The model had ALA by 1.3 and a total of 80.1 (actual 84).

Team stats

PUR		ALA
31-66 47%	Field goals	28-66 42%
9-21 43%	3-pointers	16-43 37%
16-23 70%	Free throws	8-10 80%
52 19 off	Rebounds	28 7 off
16	Assists	17
3	Steals	8
0	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	6
15	Fouls	19
30	Points in paint	22
0	Fast-break points	13

Players

PUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Smith G	34	29	7	4	7-19	5-10
Trey Kaufman-Renn F	34	19	15	5	9-16	1-2
Fletcher Loyer G	31	7	3	2	3-8	1-4
Oscar Cluff C	24	9	11	2	3-7	0-0
C.J. Cox G	23	3	2	0	1-2	0-1
Bench
Omer Mayer G	17	7	0	2	3-5	1-3
Daniel Jacobsen C	16	9	5	1	4-6	0-0
Gicarri Harris G	15	4	4	0	1-3	1-1
Jack Benter G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Liam Murphy, Jack Lusk, Aaron Fine, Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess

ALA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aden Holloway G	35	21	2	3	7-13	5-9
Labaron Philon Jr. G	28	11	4	7	5-14	1-6
Taylor Bol Bowen F	26	13	2	0	4-7	3-6
Aiden Sherrell F	23	12	4	1	4-5	1-2
Houston Mallette G	19	9	2	2	3-7	3-6
Bench
Latrell Wrightsell Jr. G	30	6	3	2	2-9	1-6
Amari Allen G	20	3	4	1	1-4	1-2
Noah Williamson C	9	3	1	0	1-3	1-3
London Jemison F	6	2	0	0	1-4	0-3
Davion Hannah G	4	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jacob Martin, Jack Fagan, Collins Onyejiaka, Keitenn Bristow, Klark James, Preston Murphy Jr., Jalil Bethea

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ALA -3.5	ALA -2.5	PUR +1.0	W PUR covered
Total	172.5	171.1	Under 1.4	W Under
Projected score	—	PUR 84.3 · ALA 86.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALA -1.3	PUR -2.0
1H total	80.1	84
1H projected score	PUR 39.4 · ALA 40.7	PUR 43 · ALA 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LL	0-2	0%	—	—
ALA LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UO	1-1	50%	2-0
ALA UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PURlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
ALAlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PUR 2–0 ALAPUR leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · PUR has won the last 2 meetings · PUR 1-0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2024-25	ALA 78 @ PUR 87	PUR +4.5	PUR W
Dec 9, 2023-24	ALA 86 vs PUR 92	PUR -6	P

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Purdue

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −12 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −12 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

over 1under 1avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUND	W 91-62	-36.5	L −7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 8	@SJU	W 103-96	+4.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 199

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−7.5

SJU

W 103-96

+11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−17.5

SJU

W 103-96

+26.5

over 1under 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Purdue Boilermakers at Alabama Crimson Tide

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Purdue

Alabama

Purdue

Alabama