Alcorn State Braves at Maryland Terrapins: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ETXFINITY Center · at Maryland

#360ALCNAlcorn St64final

Final

#50MDMaryland84▲ winner

Closing lineMD -29.5✓ ALCN covered by 9.5

Closing total146.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Alcorn St and Maryland
ALCN	This season	MD
0-3	Record	1-1
1-2	ATS	0-2
2-1	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALCN 59–87 MD · ✓ MD (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALCN	27	37	64
MD	33	51	84

1st half: ALCN 27, MD 33 (MD by 6). The model had MD by 16.6 and a total of 68.6 (actual 60).

Team stats

ALCN		MD
24-54 44%	Field goals	28-56 50%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	8-28 29%
7-11 64%	Free throws	20-27 74%
25 8 off	Rebounds	37 14 off
13	Assists	14
10	Steals	7
4	Blocks	1
21	Turnovers	17
20	Fouls	11
24	Points in paint	34
10	Fast-break points	13

Players

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Woodard SF	27	2	4	1	0-5	0-3
Travis Roberts SG	25	14	1	1	5-10	4-8
Davian Williams PG	25	3	2	1	1-3	0-2
Tycen McDaniels F	20	4	1	1	2-5	0-0
Mike Jones SG	18	3	5	5	1-4	0-1
Bench
Jameel Morris G	28	22	1	3	9-12	3-5
Shane Lancaster G	24	10	2	1	4-8	2-3
Omari Hamilton F	12	2	4	0	0-1	0-0
William Henderson F	10	2	0	0	1-4	0-1
Jeremy Ellis PF	10	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Bryson Calamese PG	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ray Glasgow, Alex Hawkins

MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
David Coit G	32	9	5	3	3-7	2-4
Pharrel Payne F	30	22	7	0	8-10	0-0
Andre Mills G	27	16	8	3	6-10	3-6
Elijah Saunders F	26	12	2	2	3-5	0-2
Darius Adams G	26	10	3	2	3-11	2-7
Bench
Isaiah Watts G	21	3	2	2	1-5	0-4
Aleks Alston F	13	2	3	0	1-3	0-2
Guillermo Del Pino G	13	7	1	2	3-4	1-2
George Turkson Jr. G	8	3	0	0	0-1	0-1
Collin Metcalf C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rakease Passmore, Solomon Washington, Jaziah Harper, Nick Blake, Lukas Sotell, Myles Rice

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MD -29.5	MD -27.7	ALCN +1.8	W ALCN covered
Total	146.5	146.4	Under 0.1	L Over
Projected score	—	ALCN 59.4 · MD 87

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MD -16.6	MD -6.0
1H total	68.6	60
1H projected score	ALCN 26 · MD 42.6	ALCN 27 · MD 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
MD LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: ALCN away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN OOU	2-1	67%	0-3
MD OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCNlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
MDlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ALCN 0–2 MDMD leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MD has won the last 2 meetings · ALCN 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 1, 2024-25	ALCN 58 @ MD 96	MD -34.5	MD W
Dec 12, 2023-24	ALCN 65 @ MD 105	MD -22.5	MD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

over 2under 1avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maryland

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −10.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOPP	W 83-61	-28.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 7	vsGTWN	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

−6.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

+4.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

over 1under 1avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alcorn State Braves at Maryland Terrapins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Maryland

Alcorn St

Maryland