Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Indiana State Sycamores: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETHulman Center · at Indiana St

Final

#207INSTIndiana St60▲ winner

Closing lineINST -3.5✓ INST covered by 5.5

Closing total147.5Under by 36.5

Season records: Louisiana Tech and Indiana St
LT	This season	INST
1-1	Record	1-2
1-1	ATS	1-2
0-2	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LT 73–76 INST · ✓ INST (59%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LT	25	26	51
INST	30	30	60

1st half: LT 25, INST 30 (INST by 5). The model had INST by 1.5 and a total of 69.9 (actual 55).

Team stats

LT		INST
19-66 29%	Field goals	20-60 33%
2-16 13%	3-pointers	11-38 29%
11-20 55%	Free throws	9-12 75%
50 15 off	Rebounds	44 7 off
2	Assists	15
7	Steals	4
6	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	12
18	Fouls	18
28	Points in paint	18
4	Fast-break points	4

Players

LT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Scooter Williams G	37	23	11	1	9-21	1-6
Kylan Howze F	27	3	4	0	1-4	0-0
Jaylen Fenner G	26	5	0	0	2-5	0-1
AJ Bates G	11	0	1	1	0-5	0-0
Will Allen F	8	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Will Jeffress F	25	11	8	0	4-10	1-3
Kaden Cooper F	18	2	6	0	1-8	0-0
Avery Thomas II F	17	5	6	0	1-8	0-4
Jermaurhiyun Anderson G	14	0	4	0	0-3	0-1
Melian Martinez C	13	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
DJ Dudley G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: A'Meir Williams, Keegan Rowell, Lachlan Thompson, Sir Issac Herron

INST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sterling Young G	34	10	1	3	3-12	2-8
Ian Scott F	31	12	12	0	4-8	1-3
Xavier Hall G	31	4	4	9	2-5	0-2
Camp Wagner G	28	16	8	0	4-11	4-10
Markus Harding C	25	2	1	0	1-7	0-4
Bench
Bruno Alocen G	15	6	1	1	2-7	2-6
Derek Vorst C	12	5	1	1	2-3	1-1
Enel St. Bernard F	12	0	5	0	0-2	0-0
Jo Van Buggenhout G	9	5	1	1	2-5	1-4
Jayan Walker F	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Cooper Bean G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Sivert Waerstad Nordheim, Martin Kaupanger, Caden Huttenlocker, Hunter Harding, Zyair Greene

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	INST -3.5	INST -2.7	LT +0.8	L INST covered
Total	147.5	149.2	Over 1.7	L Under
Projected score	—	LT 73.2 · INST 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	INST -1.5	INST -5.0
1H total	69.9	55
1H projected score	LT 34.2 · INST 35.7	LT 25 · INST 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
INST LWL	1-2	33%	—	—

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; INST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT UU	0-2	0%	1-1
INST OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LTlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
INSTlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana Tech

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −18.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

over 0under 2avg −18.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana St

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

over 1under 2avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Indiana State Sycamores

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana Tech

Indiana St

Louisiana Tech

Indiana St