Alcorn State Braves at LSU Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETPete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU

#360ALCNAlcorn St81final

Final

#51LSULSU107▲ winner

Closing lineLSU -32.5✓ ALCN covered by 6.5

Closing total155.5Over by 32.5

Season records: Alcorn St and LSU
ALCN	This season	LSU
0-5	Record	3-0
2-3	ATS	2-1
3-2	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALCN 62–95 LSU · ✓ LSU (100%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALCN	44	37	81
LSU	50	57	107

1st half: ALCN 44, LSU 50 (LSU by 6). The model had LSU by 20.0 and a total of 73.3 (actual 94).

Team stats

ALCN		LSU
33-67 49%	Field goals	35-63 56%
10-26 38%	3-pointers	6-21 29%
5-11 45%	Free throws	31-39 79%
28 13 off	Rebounds	43 19 off
11	Assists	12
5	Steals	8
5	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	11
25	Fouls	13
28	Points in paint	58
12	Fast-break points	12

Players

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Woodard SF	26	11	3	1	5-12	1-4
Jameel Morris G	19	2	1	2	1-3	0-0
Tycen McDaniels F	18	5	2	1	2-6	0-1
Shane Lancaster G	15	4	0	2	1-1	0-0
Omari Hamilton F	9	3	0	0	1-4	1-2
Bench
Davian Williams PG	29	21	1	1	7-12	6-10
Travis Roberts SG	27	12	9	0	5-9	2-5
Mike Jones SG	21	10	5	1	5-7	0-2
William Henderson F	13	6	3	0	3-5	0-0
Bryson Calamese PG	12	3	1	3	1-5	0-2
Jeremy Ellis PF	11	4	1	0	2-3	0-0

Did not play: Ray Glasgow, Alex Hawkins

LSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Marquel Sutton F	30	16	10	1	6-12	2-7
Dedan Thomas Jr. G	27	16	2	6	5-9	0-2
Max Mackinnon G	26	7	2	3	1-5	0-3
Pablo Tamba F	23	4	4	0	1-2	0-0
Mike Nwoko F	20	29	9	0	12-15	0-0
Bench
Jalen Reed F	17	8	5	0	2-5	1-2
Robert Miller III F	17	9	3	0	2-2	0-0
Rashad King G	14	2	1	0	1-5	0-2
Jalen Reece G	13	8	1	2	3-5	1-2
PJ Carter G	8	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Mazi Mosley G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ron Zipper G	2	5	0	0	1-1	1-1
Jaden Bobbett G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Matt Gilhool

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LSU -32.5	LSU -33.4	LSU +0.9	L ALCN covered
Total	155.5	156.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	ALCN 61.5 · LSU 94.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LSU -20.0	LSU -6.0
1H total	73.3	94
1H projected score	ALCN 26.6 · LSU 46.6	ALCN 44 · LSU 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN LWLWL	2-3	40%	2-3	2-3
LSU WWL	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: ALCN away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN OOUOU	3-2	60%	0-5
LSU OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCNlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
LSUlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

over 3under 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

LSU

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +10.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

over 2under 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alcorn State Braves at LSU Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

LSU

Alcorn St

LSU